Fig. 4
From: Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies
Calibration of the model and estimates of weekly incidence and percentage of population infected. a Calibration of the model on data of daily hospital admissions in Île-de-France prior to lockdown, and projections for the lockdown phase. Black dots indicate data in the timeframe used for calibration, also indicated by the region in light blue; white dots indicate data in the prediction timeframe. Our model predictions are compared to results obtained by fitting out model also in the lockdown phase (orange line for the median curve). b Simulated weekly incidence of clinical cases (mild and severe) compared to estimates of COVID-19-positive cases in the region provided by syndromic and virological surveillance (Reseau Sentinelles (RS) data) [42]. c Simulated percentage of population infected over time. Results are shown for pa= 0.2. Shaded areas correspond to 95% CI