Fig. 5

Lockdown projections compared to data. a Simulated daily incidence of admissions in ICU over time. b Simulated number of ICU beds occupied during lockdown. In panels a and b, black dots indicate data in the timeframe used for calibration (fit to hospital admission data before lockdown, see Fig. 4) and white dots indicate data in the prediction timeframe. c Simulated number of ICU beds occupied assuming a less stringent lockdown, under the reduction of contacts measured in the UK [45] (73%), and a more stringent lockdown, under the reduction of contacts measured in China [46] (90%). The median prediction of our model is also shown for comparison (red curve). d Simulated number of ICU beds occupied resulting from considering the inclusion of physical contacts during lockdown. The median prediction of our model is also shown for comparison (red curve). In all plots, vertical dashed line refers to the start of the lockdown, horizontal lines refer to ICU capacity in the region (see Fig. 1b), and shaded areas correspond to 95% probability ranges. Results are shown for p_a= 0.2