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Fig. 6 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 6

From: Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

Fig. 6

Simulated impact of lockdown of different durations and exit strategies. a Simulated daily incidence of clinical cases assuming lockdown till end of April, May 11, and end of May. b Corresponding demand of ICU beds. c Simulated daily incidence of clinical cases assuming lockdown till May 11, followed by interventions of varying degree of intensity. d Corresponding demand of ICU beds. e Relative reduction of peak incidence and epidemic size after 1 year for each scenario. f Peak ICU demand relative to restored ICU capacity of the region (1500 beds). In all panels, the color code is as in Table 1, and scenarios are identified as reported in Fig. 3. Vertical colored areas indicate the time period of lockdown under the different measures. Baseline scenario corresponds to no intervention. Results are shown for pa= 0.2. Shaded areas correspond to 95% probability ranges

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