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Table 2 The association between armed conflict and age-standardised all-cause mortality, 1990–2017

From: Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990–2017

 

Binary

Continuous (battle-related deaths per 100,000)

Quintiles of conflict

Categories of conflict

Armed conflict variable

β (95% CI)

β (95% CI)

β (95% CI)

β (95% CI)

 No (< 25 battle deaths/year)

0.00

   

 Yes (≥ 25 battle deaths/year)

26.44 (− 12.88, 65.76)

   

 Battle deaths/100,000 population

 

1.76 (0.56, 2.96)**

  

 None (0 battle deaths/year)

  

0.00

 

 First quintile

  

− 11.59 (− 31.62, 8.44)

 

 Second quintile

  

− 16.24 (− 42.50, 10.02)

 

 Third quintile

  

8.81 (− 34.20, 51.82)

 

 Fourth quintile

  

27.26 (− 23.31, 77.83)

 

 Fifth quintile

  

99.21 (28.16, 170.26)**

 

 None (< 25 battle deaths/year)

   

0.00

 Minor conflict (25–999 battle deaths/year)

   

13.05 (− 22.74, 48.84)

 War (≥ 1000 battle deaths/year)

   

81.52 (14.30, 148.75)*

Covariates

 GDP per capita

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00)

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00)

0.00 (− 0.00,0.00)

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00)

 OECD membership

− 38.32 (− 96.14, 19.50)

− 38.23 (− 95.85, 19.40)

− 40.38 (− 97.92, 17.16)

− 39.67 (− 97.20, 17.86)

 Population density

− 20.00 (− 345.62, 305.61)

− 24.52 (− 350.11, 301.07)

− 36.48 (− 366.3, 293.3)

− 20.36 (− 342.29, 301.58)

 Urbanisation

− 16.58* (− 30.93, −  2.22)

− 16.45* (−30.70, − 2.21)

−15.75* (− 29.91, − 1.60)

− 16.17* (− 30.33, − 2.00)

 Age dependency ratio

− 2.49 (− 5.52, 0.53)

− 2.36 (− 5.37, 0.65)

− 2.50 (− 5.49, 0.50)

− 2.45 (− 5.46, 0.57)

 Male education

− 34.09 (− 87.46, 19.29)

− 32.63 (− 85.53, 20.27)

− 34.46 (− 86.93, 18.02)

− 33.80 (− 86.85, 19.25)

 Temperature

− 7.10 (− 24.75, 10.55)

− 6.93 (− 24.54, 10.68)

− 7.31 (− 25.29, 10.68)

− 7.16 (− 24.87, 10.55)

 Rainfall

19.97 (− 14.97, 54.91)

20.71 (− 13.70, 55.11)

20.38 (− 13.19, 53.95)

21.18 (− 12.67, 55.04)

 Earthquake

4.79 (− 16.49, 26.06)

5.30 (− 16.12, 26.72)

6.13 (− 15.28, 27.54)

6.12 (− 15.29, 27.52)

 Drought

1.38 (− 14.50, 17.26)

1.84 (− 13.17, 16.85)

1.31 (− 14.31, 16.92)

1.27 (− 14.27, 16.82)

 Observations

4746

4746

4746

4746

 Countries

183

183

183

183

  1. GDP per capita is in current US dollars. Population density represents the percentage of the population living in a density of > 1000 people/km2. Urbanisation represents the percentage of the population living in urban areas. The age dependency ratio represents the percentage of the population younger than 15 years and older than 64 years per 100 working-age population. Male education is expressed as years per capita and is age-standardised. Temperature is in degrees Celsius and is the mean population-weighted annual temperature. Rainfall represents the percentage of the population living in the top world quintile of annual rainfall. Earthquake and drought are binary variables representing their absence or presence. All armed conflict variables were lagged by 1 year
  2. Note: * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Robust standard errors were employed. Each column is the output from one panel regression with fixed effects adjusted for the covariates in the table in addition to year dummies (not shown). Coefficients are interpreted as the change in all-cause mortality per 100,000 following a change in one unit of the independent variable
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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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