Fig. 5

One-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Note: ESD, endoscopic submucosal dissection; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; QALY, quality-adjusted life-year; WTP, willingness-to-pay threshold. a Tornado plot showing ICER estimates for one-way sensitivity analyses. Details of changes to parameter values are given in Table 1. The dotted line indicates ICER from the base case analysis. b Result of 1000 bootstraps was generated in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Each dot represents the lifetime discounted incremental cost and QALYs of one bootstrap sample. The dotted line indicates willingness-to-pay threshold of US$50000. c Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showing probability that the 50-75-3 strategy is cost-effective across a range of threshold values. The 50-75-3 strategy indicates a triennial screening strategy from 50 to 75 years