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Table 2 Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis in the derivation dataset (N = 2838)

From: Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study

  Alive/TF by 6 months of ART (N = 2755) Died by 6 months of ART (N = 83) Unadjusted Model A—adjusted model excluding CD4 Model B—adjusted model including CD4
n N Median (IQR)/% n N Median (IQR)/% OR 95% CI p AOR 95% CI p AOR 95% CI p
Demographics
 Age, years (for every 10-year increase)   2755 34 (29–41)   83 39 (31–49) 1.44 (1.19–1.73) < 0.001       
 Sex and pregnancy status Pregnant 517 520 99% 3 520 1% 1.00 1.00 1.00
Female non-pregnant 1379 1418 97% 39 1418 3% 4.87 (1.66–14.3) 0.004 2.45 (0.76–7.88) 0.133 2.04 (0.68–6.09) 0.201
Male 859 900 95% 41 900 5% 8.23 (2.72–24.91) < 0.001 5.47 (1.49–20.17) 0.011 4.35 (1.27–14.88) 0.019
 Marital status Married/civil union 292 300 97% 8 300 3% 1.00       
Single 2367 2441 97% 74 2441 3% 1.14 (0.65–2) 0.646       
Widowed/divorced 96 97 99% 1 97 1% 0.38 (0.05–3.14) 0.369       
 Smoking history Never 2262 2321 97% 59 2321 3% 1.00       
Current/ex-smoker 493 517 95% 24 517 5% 1.87 (1.11–3.15) 0.019       
 Employed Employed 1233 1270 97% 37 1270 3% 1.00       
Unemployed 1522 1568 97% 46 1568 3% 1.01 (0.68–1.48) 0.971       
 Education None 188 196 96% 8 196 4% 1.00       
Primary 664 687 97% 23 687 3% 0.81 (0.36–1.85) 0.610       
Secondary 1687 1734 97% 47 1734 3% 0.65 (0.31–1.39) 0.265       
Higher 216 221 98% 5 221 2% 0.54 (0.23–1.26) 0.300       
HIV/TB history
 Previous TB treatment No 2489 2561 97% 72 2561 3% 1.00       
Yes 266 277 96% 11 277 4% 1.43 (0.74–2.77) 0.290       
 Number of WHO TB symptoms 0 1955 1975 99% 20 1975 1% 1.00 1.00 1.00
1 407 427 95% 20 427 5% 4.80 (2.8–8.23) < 0.001 3.39 (1.88–6.09) < 0.001 3.16 (1.84–5.43) < 0.001
2 188 202 93% 14 202 7% 7.28 (3.58–14.8) < 0.001 4.03 (1.82–8.92) 0.001 3.64 (1.63–8.12) 0.002
3 or 4 205 234 88% 29 234 12% 13.83 (9.04–21.13) < 0.001 5.05 (3.31–7.7) < 0.001 4.68 (2.93–7.48) < 0.001
Clinical characteristics
 WHO stage I/II 2441 2484 98% 43 2484 2% 1.00 1.00 1.00
III/IV 314 354 89% 40 354 11% 7.23 (3.87–13.52) < 0.001 2.57 (1.32–4.99) 0.005 2.47 (1.24–4.89) 0.010
 CD4 (per 10-cell increase)a   2755 249 (149–317)   83 98 (41–218) 0.94 (0.9–0.98) 0.002     0.98 (0.95–1.01) 0.211
 Weight (per 1-kg increase)b   2755 59 (52–68)   83 51 (45–60) 0.96 (0.93–0.98) 0.001       
 BMI (per 1-unit increase)b   2755 21.6 (19.0–25.0)   83 19.0 (17.0–21.8) 0.86 (0.79–0.94) 0.001       
 Hemoglobin (per 1-g/dL increase)   2755 11.9 (10.5–13.3)   83 9.9 (8.5–11.7) 0.69 (0.61–0.79) < 0.001 0.73 (0.65–0.81) < 0.001 0.74 (0.67–0.81) < 0.001
 Temperature (per 1 °C increase)c   2755 36.2 (35.8–36.5)   83 36.5 (36.0–37.0) 2.09 (1.47–2.96) < 0.001 1.26 (0.96–1.65) 0.092 1.25 (0.94–1.67) 0.127
 Heart rate (per 1 beat/min increase)d   2755 84 (75–94)   83 102 (85–121) 1.05 (1.04–1.06) < 0.001       
 Respiratory rate (per 1 breath/min increase)   2755 18 (18–20)   83 20 (18–22) 1.02 (1.01–1.04) 0.009       
  1. Abbreviations: ART antiretroviral therapy, TF transfer-out, CI confidence interval, WHO World Health Organization, BMI body mass index, OR odds ratio, AOR adjusted odds ratio, IQR interquartile range
  2. aDue to non-linearity in the association between CD4 and log odds of death, CD4 was modeled as two terms (term 1 = X − .2432641563 and term 2 = X*ln(X) + .3438800025, where X = CD4/1000). Output shown is for the linear term. The p value associated with each CD4 term was < 0.001
  3. bBMI and weight were correlated, and BMI was retained as the preferred candidate variable. However, BMI was eliminated from the backward stepwise regression at p > 0.01
  4. cDue to non-linearity in the association between temperature and log odds of death, temperature was modeled as two terms (term 1 = temperature^3 − 47,148.67774 and term 2 = temperature^3*ln (temperature) − 169,123.2696). Output shown is for the linear term. The p value associated with each squared term for temperature was < 0.001
  5. dHeart rate was excluded as a candidate variable due to correlation with temperature