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Table 3 Multivariable model and clinical score generation from the derivation dataset (N = 2838)

From: Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study

 

Predictor—model A (excluding CD4)

Predictor—model B (including CD4)

AOR

95% CI

p value

ß coefficient

Score

AOR

95% CI

p value

ß coefficient

Score

Sex and pregnancy status

Female (pregnant)

1.00

–

–

–

0

1.00

–

–

–

0

Female (non-pregnant)

1.94

(0.58–6.50)

0.283

0.66

1

1.71

(0.53–5.52)

0.373

0.53

1

Male

3.54

(0.95–13.26)

0.060

1.26

2

2.93

(0.82–10.44)

0.097

1.08

2

Number of WHO TB symptoms

0

1.00

–

–

–

0

1.00

–

–

–

0

≥ 1

3.65

(2.24–5.97)

< 0.001

1.30

2

3.33

(2.06–5.38)

< 0.001

1.20

2

WHO stage

I/II

1.00

–

–

–

0

1.00

–

–

–

0

III/IV

2.72

(1.42–5.20)

0.003

1.00

2

2.55

(1.32–4.92)

0.005

0.94

2

Temperature at enrollment

≤ 37.5 °C

1.00

–

–

–

0

1.00

–

–

–

0

> 37.5 °C

3.39

(1.65–6.96)

0.001

1.22

2

3.37

(1.56–7.26)

0.002

1.21

2

CD4 count

≥ 200/μL

–

–

–

–

N/A

1.00

–

–

–

0

< 200/μL

–

–

–

–

N/A

2.05

(1.20–3.50)

0.009

0.72

1

Anemia statusa

No anemia

1.00

–

–

–

0

1.00

–

–

–

0

Mild/moderate anemia

5.03

(2.57–9.87)

< 0.001

1.62

2

4.58

(2.37–8.84)

< 0.001

1.52

3

Severe anemia

9.42

(3.43–25.89)

< 0.001

2.24

3

8.02

(3.04–21.14)

< 0.001

2.08

4

  1. Abbreviations: AOR adjusted odds ratio, CI confidence interval, WHO World Health Organization
  2. aAnemia severity was classified according to World Health Organization criteria as follows: no anemia, hemoglobin level of ≥ 13.0 g/dL for men, ≥ 12.0 g/dL for non-pregnant females, and ≥ 11.0 g/dL for pregnant females; mild/moderate anemia, 8.0 to < 13.0 g/dL for men, 8.0 to < 12.0 g/dL for non-pregnant women, and 7.0 to < 11.0 g/dL for pregnant women; and severe anemia, < 8.0 g/dL for males and non-pregnant females and < 7.0 g/dL for pregnant women