Fig. 2
From: Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study
Estimated reduction in severe cases following a self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and b population-wide physical distancing, using synthetic contact matrices. Medians (circles), 75% (lighter shaded areas) and 50% (darker shaded area) quantiles for the percentage reduction in severe cases during the first 12 months of the epidemic for different levels of compliance, for each country, across all model runs in each scenario. Quantiles are calculated across all simulations representing different stochastic runs and using different R0 values in each run, drawn from a distribution of global R0 estimates or from a distribution of country-specific Rt estimates. Estimates for reductions where no point is available are interpolated