Table 4 Relative reductions in key outcomes during the first 12 months of the epidemic under different strategies, compared to an unmitigated epidemic. All strategies include 50% self-isolation of symptomatic cases
From: Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study
Key outcome | Country | 20% distancing | 50% distancing | 80% shielding | 80% shielding + 20% distancing | 80% shielding + 50% distancing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Projections using country Rt estimates | ||||||
 Total symptomatic cases | Niger | 56.6% (31.5 to 99.6) | 98.8% (75.1 to 99.8) | 23% (15.9 to 99.3) | 58.7% (33 to 99.7) | 98.8% (75.6 to 99.8) |
Nigeria | 85.1% (30.6 to 99.6) | 99.5% (79.9 to 99.9) | 30.8% (16.7 to 99.7) | 86.9% (33.4 to 99.8) | 99.6% (82.9 to 99.9) | |
Mauritius | 57.3% (9.9 to 99.5) | 98.8% (24.5 to 99.7) | 34.3% (16.9 to 99.5) | 64% (21.2 to 99.6) | 99% (34.5 to 99.8) | |
 Hospital bed demand at epidemic peak | Niger | 62.5% (38.8 to 99.6) | 98.8% (76.4 to 99.8) | 42.9% (38.3 to 98.8) | 69.9% (52.3 to 99.4) | 99% (80.8 to 99.8) |
Nigeria | 87.4% (35.9 to 99.7) | 99.5% (76.7 to 99.9) | 54.1% (41.4 to 99.6) | 89.5% (54.6 to 99.8) | 99.6% (84.6 to 99.9) | |
Mauritius | 61.1% (15.1 to 99.6) | 98.9% (29.9 to 99.8) | 56.1% (43 to 99.3) | 77.3% (47.5 to 99.6) | 99.2% (57.6 to 99.8) | |
 Total deaths | Niger | 63.9% (38.4 to 99.6) | 98.8% (76.8 to 99.8) | 42.8% (37.9 to 99) | 71.2% (51.9 to 99.5) | 99% (81 to 99.8) |
Nigeria | 90.3% (36.1 to 99.7) | 99.5% (77.4 to 99.9) | 56.8% (41.5 to 99.6) | 90.4% (54.7 to 99.7) | 99.6% (77.2 to 99.9) | |
Mauritius | 62.1% (14.2 to 99.5) | 98.8% (30.2 to 99.7) | 56.4% (43.3 to 99.6) | 78% (47.2 to 99.7) | 99.3% (57.2 to 99.8) | |
Projections using global R0 estimates | ||||||
 Total symptomatic cases | Niger | 27.6% (18 to 77.9) | 63.9% (41 to 99.7) | 14.6% (10.9 to 25.5) | 29.3% (20.3 to 76.2) | 65% (42.8 to 99.6) |
Nigeria | 23.2% (12.9 to 90.6) | 57.7% (32.5 to 99.8) | 13.7% (9.5 to 35.3) | 26.2% (16.4 to 92.2) | 59.8% (35.6 to 99.8) | |
Mauritius | 19.7% (10 to 70.1) | 48.5% (24.8 to 99.6) | 20.4% (16.8 to 36.6) | 29.6% (21.4 to 74.7) | 55.7% (34.9 to 99.6) | |
 Hospital bed demand at epidemic peak | Niger | 35.3% (25.9 to 83.3) | 69.2% (49 to 99.7) | 37.8% (35.4 to 45.2) | 50.5% (44.3 to 85.4) | 76.8% (62.1 to 99.7) |
Nigeria | 28.7% (18.2 to 93.4) | 61.2% (37.6 to 99.8) | 39.2% (35.5 to 59.4) | 49.5% (42 to 96) | 73.6% (57 to 99.9) | |
Mauritius | 24.9% (14.9 to 74.7) | 52.6% (30.1 to 99.6) | 46.8% (42.9 to 58.2) | 53.9% (47.5 to 84.6) | 71.8% (57.8 to 99.7) | |
 Total deaths | Niger | 35.3% (25.6 to 85.8) | 69.2% (48.7 to 99.7) | 37.9% (35 to 45.9) | 50.5% (44 to 87) | 76.8% (61.9 to 99.7) |
Nigeria | 28.7% (18.2 to 94.5) | 61.3% (37.5 to 99.8) | 39.2% (35.4 to 63.5) | 49.5% (41.9 to 96.7) | 73.6% (57 to 99.9) | |
Mauritius | 24.9% (14.3 to 76.2) | 52.5% (29.5 to 99.6) | 46.8% (42.5 to 58.7) | 53.9% (46.9 to 85.7) | 71.8% (57.3 to 99.7) | |