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Table 1 Comparison between the confirmed and adjusted case numbers at their respective peaks for ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases and ten countries with the highest number of symptomatic cases after adjusting for under-ascertainment. Eight countries are in both lists, so the total is twelve distinct countries. We find that the peak of the case curves shifts when they are adjusted for under-ascertainment. Clearly, Mexico and Brazil have not necessarily peaked yet, given that they are not as far along their epidemic as the other countries. Therefore, for these countries, we simply report the date and number of the highest number of cases to date

From: Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

 

Date

Value at peak

Location

Peak of confirmed cases

Estimated change in peak date (absolute value)

New confirmed cases at peak

Estimated total cases (95% CrI)

Brazil

6 June 2020

0 days

54,771

122,512 (110,660–137,374)

Chile

18 June 2020

3 days

36,179

52,042 (47,828–56,338)

France

1 April 2020

0 days

7578

134,594 (120,450–151,352)

India

21 June 2020

18 days

15,413

48,513 (43,433–54,939)

Iran

5 April 2020

0 days

5275

17,931 (16,078–20,201)

Italy

22 March 2020

0 days

6557

75,521 (64,229–91,630)

Mexico

13 June 2020

0 days

5222

55,661 (50,204–62,237)

Peru

4 June 2020

0 days

24,603

24,603 (22,121–27,629)

Russia

12 June 2020

4 days

11,656

15,604 (14,248–17,270)

Spain

27 March 2020

1 day

9181

85,881 (77,697–96,319)

UK

12 April 2020

0 days

8719

100,870 (91,054–112,639)

USA

26 April 2020

21 days

48,529

280,631 (226,097–344,472)