Table 1 Posterior distributions of the model parameters used in the transmission model of RSV. CrI credible interval

μ

Daily number of live births

1863 (fixed)

[8]

1/ξ

Average duration of maternally derived immunity (days)

133.5 (119.6–146.1)

[19,20,21]

1/ω

Average duration of post-infection immunity (days)

358.9 (350.7–364.7)

[22, 23]

1/σ

Average duration of exposure (days)

4.98 (4.54–5.37)

[24]

1/γ₀

Average duration of primary infection (days)

6.16 (5.68–6.63)

[15]

g₁

Decrease in secondary infection duration relative to primary

0.87 (0.83–0.91)

[15]

g₂

Decrease in subsequent infection duration relative to secondary

0.79 (0.73–0.86)

[15, 24]

p^<1

Proportion asymptomatic (< 1 years)

0.0916 (0.031–0.158)

[13]

p^1–4

Proportion asymptomatic (1–4 years)

0.163 (0.092–0.223)

[13]

p^5–14

Proportion asymptomatic (5–14 years)

0.516 (0.460–0.572)

[13]

p¹⁵⁺

Proportion asymptomatic (15+ years)

0.753 (0.656–0.829)

[13]

α

Relative reduction in infectiousness for asymptomatic infections

0.634 (0.541–0.724)

Fitted

q_p

Probability of RSV transmission per physical contact

0.0972 (0.093–0.099)

Fitted

q_c

Relative reduction in probability of RSV transmission per conversational contact compared to physical contact

0.998 (0.996–1.000)

Fitted

b₁

Relative amplitude of transmission during peak

1.998 (1.992–2.000)

Fitted

φ

Seasonal shift in transmission

0.614 (0.607–0.624)

Fitted

ψ

Seasonality wavelength constant

0.236 (0.220–0.252)

Fitted

 δ₁

Secondary infection (relative to primary)

0.89 (0.85–0.93)

[14]

 δ₂

Tertiary infection (relative to secondary)

0.81 (0.74–0.85)

[14]

 δ₃

Subsequent infections (relative to tertiary)

0.33 (0.31–0.37)

[14]

 ϵ^j

0–4 years

exp(− 4.602–0.233j)

[14, 25]

 ϵ¹⁷

5–54 years

0.0000305 (0.0000290–0.0000320)

[22]

 ϵ¹⁸

55+ years

0.000147 (0.000134–0.000160)

[22]