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Table 2 Characteristics of colorectal cancer prediction models developed in the derivation cohort, overall and by sex

From: Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score

Predictor variables Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals), p value
Both sexes Men Women
Full model* Reduced model† (LiFeCRC score) Full model* Reduced model† Full model* Reduced model†
Age at recruitment, per 10 years 2.23 (2.13 to 2.33) < .001 2.18 (2.09 to 2.29) < .001 2.19 (2.04 to 2.35) < .001 2.12 (1.98 to 2.27) < .001 2.26 (2.13 to 2.40) < .001 2.21 (2.08 to 2.34) < .001
Waist circumference, per 10 cm 1.12 (1.09 to 1.15) < .001 1.12 (1.09 to 1.16) < .001 1.19 (1.13 to 1.25) < .001 1.19 (1.13 to 1.25) < .001 1.06 (1.01 to 1.10) 0.008 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) 0.023
Height, per 10 cm 1.13 (1.08 to 1.17) < .001 1.12 (1.08 to 1.17) < .001 1.04 (0.96 to 1.11) 0.333    1.14 (1.06 to 1.22) < .001 1.16 (1.08 to 1.24) < .001
Daily alcohol consumption, high 1.14 (1.06 to 1.23) < .001 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22) < .001 1.18 (1.07 to 1.31) 0.002 1.18 (1.06 to 1.30) 0.002 1.06 (0.96 to 1.18) 0.245   
Ever smoker, yes 1.24 (1.16 to 1.33) < .001 1.24 (1.15 to 1.32) < .001 1.31 (1.17 to 1.47) < .001 1.31 (1.17 to 1.46) < .001 1.15 (1.05 to 1.26) 0.003 1.16 (1.06 to 1.27) 0.001
Physically active, yes 0.89 (0.82 to 0.97) 0.010 0.91 (0.83 to 0.99) 0.026 0.93 (0.83 to 1.04) 0.185    0.87 (0.76 to 0.99) 0.029   
Vegetables, per 100 g/day 0.92 (0.90 to 0.95) < .001 0.93 (0.90 to 0.95) < .001 0.89 (0.85 to 0.93) < .001 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) < .001 0.95 (0.92 to 0.99) 0.009 0.93 (0.90 to 0.97) < .001
Fruits, per 100 g/day 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) 0.180    0.99 (0.96 to 1.02) 0.424    0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) 0.196   
Dark bread, per 50 g/day 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) 0.147    0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) 0.015 0.97 (0.94 to 1.00) 0.070 1.02 (0.98 to 1.06) 0.329   
Dairy products, per 100 g/day 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99) 0.006 0.98 (0.97 to 1.00) 0.017 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) 0.016 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) 0.048 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) 0.198   
Red meat, per 50 g/day 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) 0.158    1.06 (1.00 to 1.13) 0.046 1.08 (1.02 to 1.14) 0.010 0.98 (0.91 to 1.06) 0.577   
Poultry, per 50 g/day 1.03 (0.95 to 1.12) 0.461    1.07 (0.96 to 1.20) 0.210    0.99 (0.87 to 1.12) 0.845   
Processed meat, per 50 g/day 1.08 (1.02 to 1.14) 0.006 1.08 (1.03 to 1.14) 0.004 1.04 (0.97 to 1.11) 0.296    1.13 (1.03 to 1.24) 0.010 1.12 (1.02 to 1.23) 0.020
Fish, per 50 g/day 0.99 (0.93 to 1.05) 0.665    1.00 (0.93 to 1.09) 0.914    0.92 (0.83 to 1.02) 0.109   
Sugar and confectionary, per 50 g/day 1.03 (1.00 to 1.05) 0.028 1.03 (1.00 to 1.05) 0.022 1.02 (0.99 to 1.05) 0.118    1.04 (0.99 to 1.09) 0.088   
Soft drinks, per 100 g/day 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) 0.097    1.01 (0.99 to 1.04) 0.392    1.02 (1.00 to 1.05) 0.095   
Survival functionm (10 years)‡ 0.9944 0.9943 0.9920 0.9919 0.9953 0.9952
Risk Scorem§ 6.8953 6.8089 6.2600 5.5356 6.4758 6.7039
Absolute Riskm (10 years)# 0.78% 0.78% 1.07% 1.07% 0.64% 0.64%
  1. *Full models were derived by using all available predictor variables
  2. †Reduced models were derived by using bootstrapped elastic net variable selection with all predictor variables of the full model
  3. ‡Survival functionm (10 years): 10-year survival function estimate of average predictor values of the derivation cohort. Estimates for timespans between 0 and 20 years are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2, Additional File 2
  4. §Risk Scorem: Mean risk score calculated based on the sum of beta coefficient products of average predictor values of the derivation cohort
  5. #Absolute Riskm: 10-year mean absolute risk of the derivation cohort