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Table 2 Characteristics of colorectal cancer prediction models developed in the derivation cohort, overall and by sex

From: Development and validation of a lifestyle-based model for colorectal cancer risk prediction: the LiFeCRC score

Predictor variables

Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals), p value

Both sexes

Men

Women

Full model*

Reduced model† (LiFeCRC score)

Full model*

Reduced model†

Full model*

Reduced model†

Age at recruitment, per 10 years

2.23 (2.13 to 2.33)

< .001

2.18 (2.09 to 2.29)

< .001

2.19 (2.04 to 2.35)

< .001

2.12 (1.98 to 2.27)

< .001

2.26 (2.13 to 2.40)

< .001

2.21 (2.08 to 2.34)

< .001

Waist circumference, per 10 cm

1.12 (1.09 to 1.15)

< .001

1.12 (1.09 to 1.16)

< .001

1.19 (1.13 to 1.25)

< .001

1.19 (1.13 to 1.25)

< .001

1.06 (1.01 to 1.10)

0.008

1.05 (1.01 to 1.09)

0.023

Height, per 10 cm

1.13 (1.08 to 1.17)

< .001

1.12 (1.08 to 1.17)

< .001

1.04 (0.96 to 1.11)

0.333

  

1.14 (1.06 to 1.22)

< .001

1.16 (1.08 to 1.24)

< .001

Daily alcohol consumption, high

1.14 (1.06 to 1.23)

< .001

1.14 (1.06 to 1.22)

< .001

1.18 (1.07 to 1.31)

0.002

1.18 (1.06 to 1.30)

0.002

1.06 (0.96 to 1.18)

0.245

  

Ever smoker, yes

1.24 (1.16 to 1.33)

< .001

1.24 (1.15 to 1.32)

< .001

1.31 (1.17 to 1.47)

< .001

1.31 (1.17 to 1.46)

< .001

1.15 (1.05 to 1.26)

0.003

1.16 (1.06 to 1.27)

0.001

Physically active, yes

0.89 (0.82 to 0.97)

0.010

0.91 (0.83 to 0.99)

0.026

0.93 (0.83 to 1.04)

0.185

  

0.87 (0.76 to 0.99)

0.029

  

Vegetables, per 100 g/day

0.92 (0.90 to 0.95)

< .001

0.93 (0.90 to 0.95)

< .001

0.89 (0.85 to 0.93)

< .001

0.89 (0.85 to 0.92)

< .001

0.95 (0.92 to 0.99)

0.009

0.93 (0.90 to 0.97)

< .001

Fruits, per 100 g/day

0.99 (0.97 to 1.01)

0.180

  

0.99 (0.96 to 1.02)

0.424

  

0.98 (0.96 to 1.01)

0.196

  

Dark bread, per 50 g/day

0.98 (0.96 to 1.01)

0.147

  

0.96 (0.93 to 0.99)

0.015

0.97 (0.94 to 1.00)

0.070

1.02 (0.98 to 1.06)

0.329

  

Dairy products, per 100 g/day

0.98 (0.97 to 0.99)

0.006

0.98 (0.97 to 1.00)

0.017

0.98 (0.96 to 1.00)

0.016

0.98 (0.96 to 1.00)

0.048

0.99 (0.97 to 1.01)

0.198

  

Red meat, per 50 g/day

1.03 (0.99 to 1.08)

0.158

  

1.06 (1.00 to 1.13)

0.046

1.08 (1.02 to 1.14)

0.010

0.98 (0.91 to 1.06)

0.577

  

Poultry, per 50 g/day

1.03 (0.95 to 1.12)

0.461

  

1.07 (0.96 to 1.20)

0.210

  

0.99 (0.87 to 1.12)

0.845

  

Processed meat, per 50 g/day

1.08 (1.02 to 1.14)

0.006

1.08 (1.03 to 1.14)

0.004

1.04 (0.97 to 1.11)

0.296

  

1.13 (1.03 to 1.24)

0.010

1.12 (1.02 to 1.23)

0.020

Fish, per 50 g/day

0.99 (0.93 to 1.05)

0.665

  

1.00 (0.93 to 1.09)

0.914

  

0.92 (0.83 to 1.02)

0.109

  

Sugar and confectionary, per 50 g/day

1.03 (1.00 to 1.05)

0.028

1.03 (1.00 to 1.05)

0.022

1.02 (0.99 to 1.05)

0.118

  

1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)

0.088

  

Soft drinks, per 100 g/day

1.02 (1.00 to 1.03)

0.097

  

1.01 (0.99 to 1.04)

0.392

  

1.02 (1.00 to 1.05)

0.095

  

Survival functionm (10 years)‡

0.9944

0.9943

0.9920

0.9919

0.9953

0.9952

Risk Scorem§

6.8953

6.8089

6.2600

5.5356

6.4758

6.7039

Absolute Riskm (10 years)#

0.78%

0.78%

1.07%

1.07%

0.64%

0.64%

  1. *Full models were derived by using all available predictor variables
  2. †Reduced models were derived by using bootstrapped elastic net variable selection with all predictor variables of the full model
  3. ‡Survival functionm (10 years): 10-year survival function estimate of average predictor values of the derivation cohort. Estimates for timespans between 0 and 20 years are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2, Additional File 2
  4. §Risk Scorem: Mean risk score calculated based on the sum of beta coefficient products of average predictor values of the derivation cohort
  5. #Absolute Riskm: 10-year mean absolute risk of the derivation cohort