|  | 3 seed cases |  | 10 seed cases | 20 seed cases | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delay from onset of symptoms (primary case) | Median delay (days) | Median epidemic size (SD, range) | % outbreaks < 20 cases | Median epidemic size (SD, range) | % outbreaks < 20 cases | Median epidemic size (SD, range) |
 Case presentation or outbreak detection | 5 | 9 (3.7, 3–29) | 98.6 | 28 (5.7, 12–55) | 5.7 | 55 (7.4, 30–89) |
 Investigation | 7 | 10 (4.4, 3–40) | 96.9 | 31 (6.1, 11–61) | 1.6 | 60 (8.2, 34–99) |
 Response | 10 | 12 (5.1, 3–47) | 92.6 | 34 (7.0, 16–67) | < 1 | 65 (8.8, 40–110) |
 Confirmation | 11 | 12 (5.4, 3–50) | 91.9 | 35 (7.1, 13–69) | 67 (9.1, 41–105) | |
Delay from onset of symptoms (primary case) | Counterfactual delay (days) | Median epidemic size (SD, range) | % outbreaks < 20 cases | Median epidemic size (SD, range) | % outbreaks < 20 cases | Median epidemic size (SD, range) |
 14-day delay | 14 | 14 (6.0, 3–51) | 85.8 | 37 (7.8, 17–79) | < 1 | 70 (9.7, 41–113) |
 21-day delay | 21 | 16 (7.4, 3–63) | 76.6 | 40 (9.0, 16–87) | 74 (10.8, 43–124) | |
 30-day delay | 30 | 18 (8.9, 3–72) | 67.7 | 43 (10.3, 18–100) | 78 (12.2, 43–131) |