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Table 4 Simulated epidemic sizes (with standard deviation (SD) and range), and proportion of outbreaks < 20 cases for outbreaks of 3, 10, and 20 seed cases at detection

From: Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes

  

3 seed cases

 

10 seed cases

20 seed cases

Delay from onset of symptoms (primary case)

Median delay (days)

Median epidemic size (SD, range)

% outbreaks < 20 cases

Median epidemic size (SD, range)

% outbreaks < 20 cases

Median epidemic size (SD, range)

 Case presentation or outbreak detection

5

9 (3.7, 3–29)

98.6

28 (5.7, 12–55)

5.7

55 (7.4, 30–89)

 Investigation

7

10 (4.4, 3–40)

96.9

31 (6.1, 11–61)

1.6

60 (8.2, 34–99)

 Response

10

12 (5.1, 3–47)

92.6

34 (7.0, 16–67)

< 1

65 (8.8, 40–110)

 Confirmation

11

12 (5.4, 3–50)

91.9

35 (7.1, 13–69)

67 (9.1, 41–105)

Delay from onset of symptoms (primary case)

Counterfactual delay (days)

Median epidemic size (SD, range)

% outbreaks < 20 cases

Median epidemic size (SD, range)

% outbreaks < 20 cases

Median epidemic size (SD, range)

 14-day delay

14

14 (6.0, 3–51)

85.8

37 (7.8, 17–79)

< 1

70 (9.7, 41–113)

 21-day delay

21

16 (7.4, 3–63)

76.6

40 (9.0, 16–87)

74 (10.8, 43–124)

 30-day delay

30

18 (8.9, 3–72)

67.7

43 (10.3, 18–100)

78 (12.2, 43–131)

  1. Legend: DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo, CAR Central African Republic, PNG Papua New Guinea