Fig. 3

Test more to detect outbreaks sooner. a Median lags to outbreak detection (95% uncertainty interval) and b corresponding median outbreak sizes upon detection (95% uncertainty interval) are shown for each surveillance strategy (y-axis) as a function of the daily testing capacity (x-axis). Group testing strategies assume a maximum of 32 swabs per test. For both cascades and group testing, individual tests were always reserved for individuals with severe COVID-like symptoms; remaining tests were then distributed according to cascades or as a single group test. SS, severe symptoms; MS, mild symptoms; A, admission; R, random patients