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Table 2 Diagnostic accuracy of triage tools to predict mortality

From: Allocation of intensive care resources during an infectious disease outbreak: a rapid review to inform practice

Triage tool (mortality risk) Hospital mortality, % (per triage tool) Patients meeting triage criteria, % Key operating characteristics
Algorithmic
 Machine Learning Algorithm (12-h window) [66] 9.6 NR AUC: 0.75–0.86
Se: 0.80
Sp: 0.75
 OHPIP blue [63, 76, 78, 79] 10.9–29.1 18.8–27.8 AUC: 0.816
Se: 0.76
Sp: 0.91
TP (%): 24.6–63.0
FP (%): 27.3–75.4
 OHPIP red NR 19.8–43.9 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 65.0–93.7
FN (%): 6.3–35.0
 OHPIP yellow NR 4.0–11.4 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 41.4–75.0
FN (%): 25–58.6
 OHPIP green NR 0–65.3 AUC: NR
Se: 0.66
Sp: 0.83
TP (%): 0–4.5
FP (%): 95.5–100
Point-based (severity of illness)
 MSOFA > 11 [72] 10.5 4.0 AUC: 0.84
Se/Sp: NR
TP (%): 57.7
FP (%): 42.3
 MSOFA 8–11 NR 14.6 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 69.1
FN (%): 30.9
 qSOFA [66] 9.6 NR AUC: 0.76
Se: 0.95
Sp: 0.37
 MEWS [66] 9.6 NR AUC: 0.83
Se: 0.90
Sp: 0.56
 SOFA > 11 [61, 70, 72, 75] 4.8–20.5 5.9–40 AUC: 0.64–0.85
Se/Sp: NR
TP (%): 0–59.0
FP (%): 41–100
 SOFA 8–11 NR 12.2–44.0 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 72.2–83.6
FN (%): 16.4–27.8
Point-based (epidemic or pandemic)
 CAT ≥ 3 [57] 6.0 18.8 AUC: 0.65
Se: 0.47
Sp: 0.83
TN (%): 85.2
FN (%): 14.8
 CAT < 3 NR 81.2 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TP (%): 3.9
FP (%): 96.0
 PMEWS > 3 [57, 59, 60] 6.0–22.6 62.8–70.4 AUC: 0.60–0.66
Se: 0.87
Sp: 0.16
TN (%): 74.0–93.4
FN (%): 6.6–26
 STSS [60,61,62,63] 4.7–12.3 NA AUC: 0.71–0.80
Se/Sp: NR
 STSS 0 NR 30.6–44.1 AUC: 0.71
Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 94.7–99.6
FN (%): 0.4–5.3
 STSS 1 NR 31.7–42.7 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 90.1–96.4
FN (%): 3.6–9.9
 STSS 2 NR 14.8–23.8 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 70.8–84.6
FN (%): 15.4–29.2
 STSS ≥ 3 NR 5.9–14.5 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TN (%): 63.8–89.9
FN (%): 11.1–36.2
 SwiFT [55] NR NR AUC: 0.77
Se/Sp: NR
Point-based (sepsis)
 MEDS > 5 [60, 64] 10.9–12.0 NR AUC: 0.77
Se: 0.85
Sp: 0.40
 MEDS ≤ 5  NR NR AUC/Se/Sp: NR
TP (%): 4.8
FP (%): 95.2
Point-based (community acquired pneumonia)
 CAP [57] 11.7 NR AUC: 0.66
Se/Sp: NR
 CURB-65 [57, 59, 60, 66,67,68,69] 6.0–31.7 NR AUC: 0.65–0.79
Se: 0.97–0.98
Sp: 0.16–0.18
 CURB-65 0–1 (low)  NR 36.9–37.6 AUC: 0.67
Se: 0.94
Sp: 0.17
TP (%): 0–22.1
FP (%): 77.9–100
 CURB-65 2 (moderate)  NR 18.1 AUC: 0.64
Se: 0.48–0.73
Sp: 0.50–0.78
TN (%): 66.7–88.3
FN (%):11.7–33.3
 CURB-65 ≥ 3 (severe)  NR 0.1–4.6 AUC: 0.54
Se: 0–0.36
Sp: 0.84–0.99
TN (%): 33.3–100
FN (%): 0–66.7
 NHAP [60] NR NR AUC: 0.68
Se/Sp: NR
 PIRO-CAP [69] 31.7 NR AUC: 0.64
Se/Sp: NR
 PIRO-CAP 0–2 (low) NR 27.5 AUC: NR
Sen 0.94–0.96
Sp: 0.07–17.1
TN (%): 86.3
FN (%): 13.7
 PIRO-CAP 3 (moderate) NR 29.1 AUC: NR
Se: 0.88
Sp: 0.35
TN (%): 67.5
FN (%): 32.5
 PIRO-CAP 4 (high) NR 25.3 AUC: NR
Se: 0.58
Sp: 0.63
TN (%): 59.7
FN (%):40.3
 PIRO-CAP ≥ 5 (very high) NR 18.1 AUC: NR
Se: 0.01–0.26
Sp: 0.86–0.99
TN (%): 54.2
FN (%): 45.8
 PSI > 87 [60, 67,68,69] (low) 12.0–31.7 41.9–64.0 AUC: 0.73–0.78
Se: 46.4–92.9
Sp: 35.4–80.1
TP (%): 13.5–17.4
FP (%): 82.6–86.5
TN (%): 55.2–97.7
FN (%): 2.3–44.8
 PSI ≤ 87 (high) NR NR AUC: NR
Se: 93
Sp: 39
 SMRT-CO(P) [60, 67] NR NR AUC: 0.69
Se/Sp: NR
 SMRT-CO(P) 0–2 (low) 11.7 11–39 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
 SMRT-CO(P) 3 (moderate)  NR 17 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
 SMRT-CO(P) ≥ 4 (high)  NR 11 AUC/Se/Sp: NR
  1. Abbreviations: AUC area under the curve; Se sensitivity; Sp specificity; TP true positive; FP false positive; TN true negative; FN false negative; CAP Severity Score for the Elderly with Community-Acquired Pneumonia; CATS Community Assessment Tools; CI confidence interval; CURB-65 Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, age ≥ 65; MEDS Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis; MSOFA modified Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment; NA not applicable; NHAP Nursing Home-Acquired Pneumonia in the Elderly; NR not reported; PMEWS Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score; OHPIP Ontario Health Plan for an Influenza Epidemic; PIRO-CAP Predisposition, Insult, Response, and Organ Dysfunction in Community-Acquired Pneumonia; PSI Pneumonia Severity Index; SMART-COP or SMRT-CO Systolic blood pressure, Multilobar involvement, Respiratory rate, Tachycardia, Confusion, Oxygenation; SOFA Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment; STSS Simple Triage Scoring System; SWiFT Swine Flu Triage