TY - JOUR AU - Kucharski, A. J. AU - Russell, T. W. AU - Diamond, C. AU - Liu, Y. AU - Edmunds, J. AU - Funk, S. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study JO - Lancet Infect Dis VL - 20 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4 DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4 ID - Kucharski2020 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Riou, J. AU - Althaus, C. L. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020 JO - Eurosurveillance. VL - 25 UR - https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058 DO - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058 ID - Riou2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Hale T, Angrist N, Kira B, Petherick A, Phillips T, Webster S. Variation in government responses to COVID-19. BSG-WP-2020/032. Version 5.0. 2020. Available from: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-05/BSG-WP-2020-032-v5.0_0.pdf. [cited 2020 May 11]. UR - https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-05/BSG-WP-2020-032-v5.0_0.pdf ID - ref3 ER - TY - STD TI - Barrot J-N, Grassi B, Sauvagnat J. Sectoral effects of social distancing. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network; 2020. Report No.: ID 3569446. Available from: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3569446. [cited 2020 Jun 7]. UR - https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3569446 ID - ref4 ER - TY - STD TI - Quilty BJ, Diamond C, Liu Y, Gibbs H, Russell TW, Jarvis CI, et al. The effect of inter-city travel restrictions on geographical spread of COVID-19: evidence from Wuhan, China. medRxiv. 2020;21:2020.04.16.20067504. https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9. UR - https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9 ID - ref5 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Chinazzi, M. AU - Davis, J. T. AU - Ajelli, M. AU - Gioannini, C. AU - Litvinova, M. AU - Merler, S. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak JO - Science. VL - 368 UR - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757 DO - 10.1126/science.aba9757 ID - Chinazzi2020 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hellewell, J. AU - Abbott, S. AU - Gimma, A. AU - Bosse, N. I. AU - Jarvis, C. I. AU - Russell, T. W. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts JO - Lancet Glob Health VL - 8 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7 DO - 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7 ID - Hellewell2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Firth JA, Hellewell J, Klepac P, Kissler S, Kucharski AJ, Spurgin LG. Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies. Nat Med. 2020;26:1616–22. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1036-8. ID - ref8 ER - TY - STD TI - Prem K, Liu Y, Russell TW, Kucharski AJ, Eggo RM, Davies N, et al. The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020,0(0). Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32220655. Accessed 25 Mar 2020. UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32220655 ID - ref9 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Koo, J. R. AU - Cook, A. R. AU - Park, M. AU - Sun, Y. AU - Sun, H. AU - Lim, J. T. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study JO - Lancet Infect Dis VL - 20 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30162-6 DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30162-6 ID - Koo2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Haug N, Geyrhofer L, Londei A, Dervic E, Desvars-Larrive A, Loreto V, et al. Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020 2020.07.06.20147199. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0. UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0 ID - ref11 ER - TY - STD TI - Chen X, Qiu Z. Scenario analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions on global COVID-19 transmissions. arXiv:200404529 [physics, q-bio, stat]. 2020; Available from: http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04529. [cited 2020 Aug 10]. UR - http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04529 ID - ref12 ER - TY - STD TI - Hsiang S, Allen D, Annan-Phan S, Bell K, Bolliger I, Chong T, et al. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature. 2020;584:262–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8. ID - ref13 ER - TY - STD TI - Amer F, Hammoud S, Farran B, Boncz I, Endrei D. Assessment of Countries’ Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness. 2020;1–8. ID - ref14 ER - TY - STD TI - Alfano V, Ercolano S. The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis. Appl Health Econ Health Policy. 2020;18(4):509–17 ID - ref15 ER - TY - STD TI - Banholzer N, Weenen E van, Kratzwald B, Seeliger A, Tschernutter D, Bottrighi P, et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on documented cases of COVID-19. medRxiv. 2020;2020.04.16.20062141. ID - ref16 ER - TY - STD TI - Bellali H, Chtioui N, Chahed M. Factors associated with country-variation in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality worldwide: an observational geographic study. medRxiv [Internet]. [cited 2020 Aug 13]; Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114280v1. UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20114280v1 ID - ref17 ER - TY - STD TI - Brauner JM, Mindermann S, Sharma M, Stephenson AB, Gavenčiak T, Johnston D, et al. The effectiveness and perceived burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission: a modelling study with 41 countries. Science. 2020;eabd9338. ID - ref18 ER - TY - STD TI - Chowell G, Rothenberg R, Roosa K, Tariq A, Hyman JM, Luo R. Sub-epidemic model forecasts for COVID-19 pandemic spread in the USA and European hotspots, February-May 2020. medRxiv. 2020;2020.07.03.20146159 ID - ref19 ER - TY - STD TI - Rey SK, Rahman MdM, Shibly KH, Siddiqi UR, Howlader A. Epidemic Trend Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in SAARC Countries Using Modified SIR (M-SIR) Predictive Model. medRxiv [Internet]. [cited 2020 Aug 13]; Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.20142513v1. UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.20142513v1 ID - ref20 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Flaxman, S. AU - Mishra, S. AU - Gandy, A. AU - Unwin, H. J. T. AU - Mellan, T. A. AU - Coupland, H. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe JO - Nature. VL - 8 ID - Flaxman2020 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ghosal, S. AU - Bhattacharyya, R. AU - Majumder, M. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Impact of complete lockdown on total infection and death rates: a hierarchical cluster analysis JO - Diabetes Metab Syndr VL - 14 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsx.2020.05.026 DO - 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.05.026 ID - Ghosal2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Jüni P, Rothenbühler M, Bobos P, Thorpe KE, Costa BR da, Fisman DN, et al. Impact of climate and public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective cohort study. CMAJ. 2020;192(21):E566–73. ID - ref23 ER - TY - STD TI - Karnakov P, Arampatzis G, Kičić I, Wermelinger F, Wälchli D, Papadimitriou C, et al. Data driven inference of the reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries. medRxiv. 2020;2020.05.21.20109314 ID - ref24 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Linka, K. AU - Peirlinck, M. AU - Costabal, F. S. AU - Kuhl, E. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions JO - Comput Methods Biomechanics Biomed Eng VL - 0 ID - Linka2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Liu X. A Simple, SIR-like but Individual-Based l-i AIR Model: Application in Comparison of COVID-19 in New York City and Wuhan. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020;2020.05.28.20115121. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379720321288. UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379720321288 ID - ref26 ER - TY - STD TI - Lonergan M, Chalmers JD. Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-“lockdown” from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Eu Respir J 2020;56(1). Available from: https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/56/1/2001483. [cited 2020 Aug 10]. UR - https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/56/1/2001483 ID - ref27 ER - TY - STD TI - López L, Rodó X. The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020;4(7):746–55 ID - ref28 ER - TY - STD TI - McGrail DJ, Dai J, McAndrews KM, Kalluri R. Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020;2020.04.23.20077271. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236619#:~:text=Globally%2C%20we%20find%20that%20social,a%20two%20week%20time%20period. UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236619#:~:text=Globally%2C%20we%20find%20that%20social,a%20two%20week%20time%20period ID - ref29 ER - TY - STD TI - Mishra PK, Mishra S. A deductive approach to modeling the spread of COVID-19. medRxiv. 2020;2020.03.26.20044651. ID - ref30 ER - TY - STD TI - Osherovich VA, Fainberg J, Osherovich LZ. Double power law for COVID-19: prediction of new cases and death rates in Italy and Spain. medRxiv. 2020;2020.05.07.20094714. ID - ref31 ER - TY - STD TI - Petr K, Georgios A, Fabian W, Daniel W, Costas P, Petros K. Data-driven inference of the reproduction number for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries. Swiss Medical Weekly [Internet]. [cited 2020 Aug 13]; Available from: https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20313. UR - https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20313 ID - ref32 ER - TY - STD TI - Ghosal S, Sinha B, Sengupta S, Majumder M. Frequency of testing for COVID 19 infection and the presence of higher number of available beds per country predict outcomes with the infection, not the GDP of the country - A descriptive statistical analysis. medRxiv. 2020;2020.04.01.20047373 ID - ref33 ER - TY - STD TI - Tobías A. Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up. Science of The Total Environment. 2020;725:138539. ID - ref34 ER - TY - STD TI - Wang Q, Xie S, Wang Y, Zeng D. Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies. medRxiv [Internet]. [cited 2020 Aug 13]; Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067306v2. UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067306v2 ID - ref35 ER - TY - STD TI - Yang P, Qi J, Zhang S, Wang X, Bi G, Yang Y, et al. Feasibility Study of Mitigation and Suppression Intervention Strategies for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in London and Wuhan. Nature Human Behaviour. 2020;2020.04.01.20043794. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236857 UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236857 ID - ref36 ER - TY - STD TI - Li Y, Campbell H, Kulkarni D, Harpur A, Nundy M, Wang X, et al. The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;0(0). Available from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/abstract. [cited 2020 Nov 4]. UR - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/abstract ID - ref37 ER - TY - STD TI - CMMID epiforecasts Core Team. [EpiForecast] Covid-19: Global summary. EpiForecast: COVID-19. Available from: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/. [cited 2020 May 11]. UR - https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/ ID - ref38 ER - TY - STD TI - World Health Organization. Tracking public health and social measures: a global dataset. 2020. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/phsm. [cited 2020 Jun 7]. UR - https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/phsm ID - ref39 ER - TY - STD TI - World Bank. World Bank Country and Lending Groups – World Bank Data Help Desk. 2020. Available from: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. [cited 2020 Jun 14]. UR - https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups ID - ref40 ER - TY - STD TI - Abbott S, Hellewell J, Thompson RN, Sherratt K, Gibbs HP, Bosse NI, et al. Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts. Wellcome Open Res. 2020;5:112. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16006.1. ID - ref41 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Cori, A. AU - Ferguson, N. M. AU - Fraser, C. AU - Cauchemez, S. PY - 2013 DA - 2013// TI - A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics JO - Am J Epidemiol VL - 178 UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwt133 DO - 10.1093/aje/kwt133 ID - Cori2013 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Murtagh, F. AU - Legendre, P. PY - 2014 DA - 2014// TI - Ward’s hierarchical agglomerative clustering method: which algorithms implement Ward’s criterion? JO - J Classif VL - 31 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00357-014-9161-z DO - 10.1007/s00357-014-9161-z ID - Murtagh2014 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Shimodaira, H. PY - 2004 DA - 2004// TI - Approximately unbiased tests of regions using multistep-multiscale bootstrap resampling JO - Ann Stat VL - 32 UR - https://doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000823 DO - 10.1214/009053604000000823 ID - Shimodaira2004 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hausman, J. A. PY - 1978 DA - 1978// TI - Specification tests in econometrics JO - Econometrica. VL - 46 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827 DO - 10.2307/1913827 ID - Hausman1978 ER - TY - STD TI - R Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna R Foundation for statistical Computing; 2020. Available from: http://www.R-project.org/. Accessed 25 Apr 2020. UR - http://www.r-project.org/ ID - ref46 ER - TY - STD TI - Croissant Y, Millo G. Panel data econometrics in R: the plm package. J Stat Software. 27(2):1–43. ID - ref47 ER - TY - BOOK AU - Suzuki, R. AU - Terada, Y. AU - Shimodaira, H. PY - 2019 DA - 2019// TI - pvclust: hierarchical clustering with P-values via multiscale bootstrap resampling ID - Suzuki2019 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Jackson, M. L. AU - Hart, G. R. AU - McCulloch, D. J. AU - Adler, A. AU - Brandstetter, E. AU - Fay, K. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses JO - medRxiv VL - 3 ID - Jackson2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Davies NG, Kucharski AJ, Eggo RM, Gimma A, Edmunds WJ, Jombart T, et al. Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health 2020;0(0). Available from: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30133-X/abstract. [cited 2020 Jun 24]. UR - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30133-X/abstract ID - ref50 ER - TY - STD TI - Russell TW, Wu JT, Clifford S, Edmunds WJ, Kucharski AJ, Jit M; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group. Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020:S2468-2667(20)30263-2. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30263-2. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 33301722 ID - ref51 ER - TY - STD TI - Clifford S, Quilty BJ, Russell TW, Liu Y, Chan Y-WD, Pearson CAB, et al. Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 re-introduction from international travellers. medRxiv. Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.24.20161281v2. [cited 2020 Aug 10]. UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.24.20161281v2 ID - ref52 ER - TY - STD TI - Stockdale JE, Doig R, Min J, Mulberry N, Wang L, Elliott LT, et al. Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 control measures. medRxiv. 2020; 2020.06.14.20131177. ID - ref53 ER - TY - STD TI - Wu P, Tsang TK, Wong JY, Ng TW, Ho F, Gao H, et al. Suppressing COVID-19 transmission in Hong Kong: an observational study of the first four months. Research Square. 2020. ID - ref54 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bertozzi, A. L. AU - Franco, E. AU - Mohler, G. AU - Short, M. B. AU - Sledge, D. PY - 2020 DA - 2020// TI - The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 JO - PNAS. VL - 117 UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006520117 DO - 10.1073/pnas.2006520117 ID - Bertozzi2020 ER - TY - STD TI - Armario C. Colombia’s Medellin emerges as surprise COVID-19 pioneer. AP NEWS. 2020; Available from: https://apnews.com/b3f8860343323d0daeef72191b669baf. [cited 2020 Aug 13]. UR - https://apnews.com/b3f8860343323d0daeef72191b669baf ID - ref56 ER - TY - STD TI - Islam N, Sharp SJ, Chowell G, Shabnam S, Kawachi I, Lacey B, et al. Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries. BMJ. 2020;370. Available from: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743. [cited 2020 Aug 11]. UR - https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743 ID - ref57 ER - TY - STD TI - Vaswani K. Coronavirus: The detectives racing to contain the virus in Singapore. BBC News. 2020; Available from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51866102. [cited 2020 Jun 15]. UR - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51866102 ID - ref58 ER - TY - STD TI - Imperial College London. COVID-19 Behaviour Tracker. Available from: http://www.coviddatahub.com/. [cited 2020 Nov 4]. UR - http://www.coviddatahub.com/ ID - ref59 ER -