Table 6 Performance of the prognostic model in the development, validation, and combination sets
Total risk points | Estimate of probability | Development set (n = 469) | Validation set (n = 428) | ||
Patients, % | Observed death within 28 days/patients (%) | Patients, % | Observed death within 28 days/patients (%) | ||
 0 | 3.47% | 9.6 | 1/45 (2.2) | 9.3 | 1/40 (2.5) |
 1 | 6.33% | 15.8 | 4/74 (5.4) | 13.8 | 5/59 (8.5) |
 2 | 11.42% | 16.8 | 5/79 (6.3) | 17.8 | 12/76 (15.8) |
 3 | 20.14% | 26.7 | 25/125 (20.0) | 22.7 | 23/97 (23.7) |
 4 | 34.10% | 15.6 | 31/73 (42.5) | 18.9 | 30/81 (37.0) |
 5 | 53.84% | 10.9 | 34/51 (66.7) | 10.5 | 24/45 (53.3) |
 6 | 76.15% | 3.4 | 14/16 (87.5) | 5.6 | 18/24 (75.0) |
 7 | 92.99% | 0.9 | 4/4 (100) | 1.4 | 4/6 (66.7) |
 8 | 99.28% | 0.4 | 2/2 (100) | 0 | – |
Risk group | Estimate of probability | Patients, % | Observed death within 28 days/patients (%) | Patients, % | Observed death within 28 days/patients (%) |
 Low (0–2) | 7.07% | 42.2 | 10/198 (5.1) | 40.9 | 18/175 (10.3) |
 Average (3–5) | 36.03% | 53.1 | 90/249 (36.1) | 52.1 | 77/223 (34.5) |
 High (6–8) | 89.47% | 4.7 | 20/22 (90.9) | 7.0 | 22/30 (73.3) |