Fig. 2

a Variability of parameters fitted to the number of reported, hospitalized, ICU, and dead cases in different regions of Italy. Table 1 recollects the parameter ranges. Note that the resulting ranges of R₁ and ρ are not used for fitting case data of Germany. They are varied to optimize the model dynamics to case data in Germany (see the “Methods” section). b Scheme of the shifting time window and repeated fitting to the time course of the reported case data (shown for a window size of 7 days)