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Fig. 3 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 3

From: Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures

Fig. 3

Data for Germany were fitted to the cumulative number of reported cases in a sliding time window with a size of 10 days. Parameters from Table 1 were used and the transmission rate R1 was fitted (see the “Methods” section). a Time-varying reproduction number Rt resulting from the fit. The parameter sets were randomly sampled within the ranges in Table 1, and upon refitting, this induced a variability of reported Rt values. The box plot shows the median, 25 and 75 percentiles, and the minimum and the maximum values. Both used parameter sets (literature-based with μ=0.2 and derived from Italy-fit) are compared to the Rt values calculated with the publicly available code from Imperial College (black curve) with a serial interval of 6.5 days having standard deviation of 0.62 days as used in [7]. b The median of fitting results in a with literature-based parameters is shown for the cumulative number of reported cases and compared with data from [4143]; own calculation and design. c Same analysis based on the literature-based parameter set together with the timing of installing and releasing NPIs in Germany for μ=1,μ=0.5,μ=0.2, and time-varying μ (evaluated on the basis of mobility and testing data, see Additional file 1: Figure S1-S2). Only the median value is reported. d The same analysis as in a for federal states with μ=0.2. Results (only the median values) for Berlin, Brandenburg, Baden-Würtemberg, Bavaria, and North Rhine-Westphalia are shown for April 2020–August 2020. e The same analysis as in a was repeated for each federal state in Germany separately with μ=0.2 (see Additional file 1: Figure S3). Here, the Rt distribution resulted from the median Rt values past 1 week observed in each federal state of Germany is shown as box plot (see a). Federal states are sorted by median values of their Rt distribution. The horizontal line shows Rt = 1. ae Each data point is a result of 100 randomly sampled parameter sets for a fixed α=0.22

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