Fig. 4

Time evolution of variables during epidemic. The distribution of simulated values for the last date of sliding time window is shown for a cumulative number of deaths and b registered daily new cases (median is shown), c number of hospitalized cases currently treated (census) in non-critical hospital beds, and d number of cases currently treated (census) in all types of critical care units (ICUs in the model). Note that the daily reported cases are calculated by subtracting the estimated cumulative number of registered cases in two consecutive dates from the sliding time windows ending at each date. The data for analysis were taken from [41–43]; own calculation and design