Fig. 6

Starting from the last state of the model in Fig. 3a for Germany, the duration needed to achieve as few as 300 a new reported cases per day and b new infectious cases per day (outflow from exposed compartment, see Fig. 1) in whole Germany was estimated in a prospective analysis with different imposed fixed values of reproduction number R. For each setting, the results were shown for μ=1 (black) and μ=0.2 (red) to assess the impact of detection ratio ((1−α)μ) of the infected cases. α=0.22 and latest hospitalization rate was used. Box plots show the 75 and 25 percentile as well as the minimum and maximum values corresponding to 100 simulations for literature-informed parameter variation (see Table 1)