# Table 1 Parameter sets of the SECIR model: determination of the mean values (and ranges where applicable, e.g., 𝜗, δ) for literature-based parameter set was based on the interpretation of the values given in the references and is discussed in the supporting information (see Parameter description [12–20]). The Italy-based parameter set was determined by fitting the data for different regions of Italy and providing minimum and maximum over the analyzed regions. While α and R7 were indeed kept fixed for Italy, other parameter ranges are the result of the fitting itself. Results are shown up to three decimal points

Parameter(s) References Parameter set from literature   Parameter set from fitting Italy data
Mean Variation Min Max
R1 Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section)
R2 [8, 21, 22] $$\frac {1}{3.2}$$ 20%-around mean 0.219 0.406
R3 1/R 3 = 5.2 – 1/ R2 ; mean incubation period is 5.2 days [8]
R4 [2325] $$\frac {1}{7}$$ 20%-around mean 0.100 0.186
R5 [26, 27] $$\frac {1}{8}$$ 20%-around mean 0.088 0.088
R6 1/R 6 = X– 1/ R11; X = 4.25 (literature [28]), 5 (Italy fitting); time to hospitalization since symptom is X days
R7 [27, 28] $$\frac {1}{4.25}$$ 20%-around mean 1 1
R8 [26] $$\frac {1}{9}$$ 20%-around mean 0.144 0.144
R9 $${\frac {1}{R_{9}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{3}}+\left (0.5\ \times \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}\right)}$$
R10 [28, 29] $$\frac {1}{7.43}$$ 20%-around mean 0.082 0.113
R11 $$\frac {1}{R_{11}}=\ 3.7$$ days [30]; fixed
R12 $$\frac {1}{R_{12}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}- \frac {1}{R_{11}}$$
α [31, 32] NA Fixed to 0.22 except Additional file 1: Figure S4 0.425 0.425
β Assumed NA 0.05–0.25 0.050 0.050
ρ Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section)
𝜗 [33, 34] NA 0.42–0.53 0.157 0.311
δ [33, 34] NA 0.42–0.53 0.300 0.900
μ Varied (see the “Methods” section); calculations from Italy data (see Additional file 1: Additional details of Italy fitting [35, 36]) yield in an average (drawn from the analyzed regions) μ = 0.13 with α = 0.425 [31]
γ;χ;ω Assumed; fixed to 1