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Table 1 Parameter sets of the SECIR model: determination of the mean values (and ranges where applicable, e.g., 𝜗, δ) for literature-based parameter set was based on the interpretation of the values given in the references and is discussed in the supporting information (see Parameter description [1220]). The Italy-based parameter set was determined by fitting the data for different regions of Italy and providing minimum and maximum over the analyzed regions. While α and R7 were indeed kept fixed for Italy, other parameter ranges are the result of the fitting itself. Results are shown up to three decimal points

From: Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures

Parameter(s)

References

Parameter set from literature

 

Parameter set from fitting Italy data

 
  

Mean

Variation

Min

Max

R1

Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section)

R2

[8, 21, 22]

\(\frac {1}{3.2}\)

20%-around mean

0.219

0.406

R3

1/R 3 = 5.2 – 1/ R2 ; mean incubation period is 5.2 days [8]

   

R4

[2325]

\(\frac {1}{7}\)

20%-around mean

0.100

0.186

R5

[26, 27]

\(\frac {1}{8}\)

20%-around mean

0.088

0.088

R6

1/R 6 = X– 1/ R11; X = 4.25 (literature [28]), 5 (Italy fitting); time to hospitalization since symptom is X days

R7

[27, 28]

\(\frac {1}{4.25}\)

20%-around mean

1

1

R8

[26]

\(\frac {1}{9}\)

20%-around mean

0.144

0.144

R9

\({\frac {1}{R_{9}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{3}}+\left (0.5\ \times \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}\right)}\)

R10

[28, 29]

\(\frac {1}{7.43}\)

20%-around mean

0.082

0.113

R11

\(\frac {1}{R_{11}}=\ 3.7\) days [30]; fixed

R12

\(\frac {1}{R_{12}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}- \frac {1}{R_{11}}\)

    

α

[31, 32]

NA

Fixed to 0.22 except Additional file 1: Figure S4

0.425

0.425

β

Assumed

NA

0.05–0.25

0.050

0.050

ρ

Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section)

𝜗

[33, 34]

NA

0.42–0.53

0.157

0.311

δ

[33, 34]

NA

0.42–0.53

0.300

0.900

μ

Varied (see the “Methods” section); calculations from Italy data (see Additional file 1: Additional details of Italy fitting [35, 36]) yield in an average (drawn from the analyzed regions) μ = 0.13 with α = 0.425 [31]

γ;χ;ω

Assumed; fixed to 1