R_{1}

Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section)

R_{2}

[8, 21, 22]

\(\frac {1}{3.2}\)

20%around mean

0.219

0.406

R_{3}

1/R _{3} = 5.2 – 1/ R_{2} ; mean incubation period is 5.2 days [8]
   
R_{4}

[23–25]

\(\frac {1}{7}\)

20%around mean

0.100

0.186

R_{5}

[26, 27]

\(\frac {1}{8}\)

20%around mean

0.088

0.088

R_{6}

1/R _{6} = X– 1/ R_{11}; X = 4.25 (literature [28]), 5 (Italy fitting); time to hospitalization since symptom is X days

R_{7}

[27, 28]

\(\frac {1}{4.25}\)

20%around mean

1

1

R_{8}

[26]

\(\frac {1}{9}\)

20%around mean

0.144

0.144

R_{9}

\({\frac {1}{R_{9}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{3}}+\left (0.5\ \times \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}\right)}\)

R_{10}

[28, 29]

\(\frac {1}{7.43}\)

20%around mean

0.082

0.113

R_{11}

\(\frac {1}{R_{11}}=\ 3.7\) days [30]; fixed

R_{12}

\(\frac {1}{R_{12}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{4}} \frac {1}{R_{11}}\)
    
α

[31, 32]

NA

Fixed to 0.22 except Additional file 1: Figure S4

0.425

0.425

β

Assumed

NA

0.05–0.25

0.050

0.050

ρ

Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section)

𝜗

[33, 34]

NA

0.42–0.53

0.157

0.311

δ

[33, 34]

NA

0.42–0.53

0.300

0.900

μ

Varied (see the “Methods” section); calculations from Italy data (see Additional file 1: Additional details of Italy fitting [35, 36]) yield in an average (drawn from the analyzed regions) μ = 0.13 with α = 0.425 [31]

γ;χ;ω

Assumed; fixed to 1
