Parameter(s) | References | Parameter set from literature | Parameter set from fitting Italy data | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Variation | Min | Max | ||
R1 | Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section) | ||||
R2 | \(\frac {1}{3.2}\) | 20%-around mean | 0.219 | 0.406 | |
R3 | 1/R 3 = 5.2 – 1/ R2 ; mean incubation period is 5.2 days [8] | ||||
R4 | \(\frac {1}{7}\) | 20%-around mean | 0.100 | 0.186 | |
R5 | \(\frac {1}{8}\) | 20%-around mean | 0.088 | 0.088 | |
R6 | 1/R 6 = X– 1/ R11; X = 4.25 (literature [28]), 5 (Italy fitting); time to hospitalization since symptom is X days | ||||
R7 | \(\frac {1}{4.25}\) | 20%-around mean | 1 | 1 | |
R8 | [26] | \(\frac {1}{9}\) | 20%-around mean | 0.144 | 0.144 |
R9 | \({\frac {1}{R_{9}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{3}}+\left (0.5\ \times \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}\right)}\) | ||||
R10 | \(\frac {1}{7.43}\) | 20%-around mean | 0.082 | 0.113 | |
R11 | \(\frac {1}{R_{11}}=\ 3.7\) days [30]; fixed | ||||
R12 | \(\frac {1}{R_{12}}=\ \ \frac {1}{R_{4}}- \frac {1}{R_{11}}\) | ||||
α | NA | Fixed to 0.22 except Additional file 1: Figure S4 | 0.425 | 0.425 | |
β | Assumed | NA | 0.05–0.25 | 0.050 | 0.050 |
ρ | Varied, fitted (see the “Methods” section) | ||||
𝜗 | NA | 0.42–0.53 | 0.157 | 0.311 | |
δ | NA | 0.42–0.53 | 0.300 | 0.900 | |
μ | Varied (see the “Methods” section); calculations from Italy data (see Additional file 1: Additional details of Italy fitting [35, 36]) yield in an average (drawn from the analyzed regions) μ = 0.13 with α = 0.425 [31] | ||||
γ;χ;ω | Assumed; fixed to 1 |