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Fig. 4 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 4

From: Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19

Fig. 4

Comparison between model predictions and hospitalisation data for EU/EEA countries and the UK. a Simulated hospitalisation rates (blue line) and data (dots). The value corresponding to the 40-49 years age range has been set to 1 for convenience and remaining values have been scaled accordingly. The shaded area indicates the 95% C.I. from simulations. b Age distribution of hospitalised cases in EU/EEA countries and the UK (dots) and mean distribution from simulations (bars). Error bars indicate the 95% C.I. from simulations. c Mean number of cumulative infections and severity score as a function of age (black and blue lines, respectively), at the time of the introduction of the pHCoV. Shaded area indicates the 95% C.I. from simulations. Here, we set π = 0.05, a = 1.5, b = 0.5, r = 0.05 years−1. Because our aim is mainly to illustrate the role of disease enhancement and cross-protection, we did not attempt to fit parameters a (baseline risk), b (boosting factor) and r (waning of cross-protection). Rather, we manually adjusted parameters in order to obtain a good visual agreement between data and simulations. Goodness of fit for chosen parameters was measured at R2 = 0.98. Results are averaged over 100 samplings from each of 50 different simulations. Other parameters are set to baseline values

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