Table 2 The AAPC and APC of population attributable fractions (PAFs) for DALYs related to rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, and gout due to risk factors

Rheumatoid arthritis

1990–2017

1990–1997

1997–2002

2002–2011

2011–2017

 Smoking

− 0.14 (− 0.24, − 0.04)*

0.29 (0.13 to 0.46)*

0.91 (0.51 to 1.32)*

− 1.23 (− 1.37 to − 1.09)*

0.12 (− 0.10 to 0.33)

 Osteoarthritis

1990–2017

1990–1994

1994–2005

2005–2010

2010–2017

 High body-mass index

3.10 (3.03, 3.17)*

2.53 (2.21 to 2.86)*

2.98 (2.90 to 3.05)*

4.69 (4.43 to 4.94)*

2.50 (2.41 to 2.59)*

Low back pain

1990–2017

1990–2000

2000–2005

2005–2010

2010–2017

 Smoking

− 0.22 (− 0.24, − 0.19)*

0.82 (0.81 to 0.83)*

− 0.51 (− 0.55 to − 0.47)*

− 1.38 (− 1.43 to − 1.34)*

− 0.64 (− 0.66 to − 0.62)*

Low back pain

1990–2017

1990–1994

1994–2005

2005–2010

2010–2017

 High body-mass index

3.07 (2.99, 3.14)*

1.62 (1.41 to 1.83)*

2.89 (2.85 to 2.94)*

5.21 (5.05 to 5.38)*

2.65 (2.59 to 2.71)*

Low back pain

1990–2017

1990–1994

1994–2004

2004–2013

2013–2017

 Occupational ergonomic factors

− 1.25 (− 1.29, − 1.21)*

− 1.74 (− 1.89 to − 1.58)*

− 0.83 (− 0.88 to − 0.79)*

− 1.80 (− 1.86 to − 1.75)*

− 0.56 (− 0.74 to − 0.39)*

Gout

1990–2017

1990–2005

2005–2009

2009–2013

2013–2017

 High body-mass index

3.12 (3.04, 3.20)*

2.74 (2.70 to 2.78)*

5.48 (5.08 to 5.87)*

3.20 (2.86 to 3.54)*

2.12 (1.92 to 2.32)*

Gout

1990–2017

1990–1996

1996–2005

2005–2012

2012–2017

 Impaired kidney function

− 0.95 (− 1.00, − 0.90)*

− 0.56 (− 0.62 to − 0.50)*

− 3.11 (− 3.14 to − 3.07)*

− 0.05 (− 0.10 to 0.01)

1.29 (1.21 to 1.36)*