Skip to main content

Table 2 Summary of permutation test on the proportion of individuals with decreased contacts and paired mean difference before and after restrictions

From: The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment

Comparison with proportion decreased        
Restriction Contacts N Adults Children Decreased Same Increased P value
Local exclude work and school 572 434 138 197 (34.4%) 252 (44.1%) 123 (21.5%) < 0.001
ROS exclude work and school 3884 3258 626 1314 (33.8%) 1573 (40.5%) 997 (25.7%) < 0.001
10 pm other 3887 3160 727 990 (25.5%) 2054 (52.8%) 843 (21.7%) < 0.001
WFH work 1408 1408 0 288 (20.5%) 933 (66.3%) 187 (13.3%) < 0.001
T1 entry exclude work and school 2415 1955 460 752 (31.1%) 993 (41.1%) 670 (27.7%) 0.017
T2 entry exclude work and school 1654 1338 316 468 (28.3%) 823 (49.8%) 363 (21.9%) < 0.001
T3 entry exclude work and school 368 267 101 103 (28.0%) 188 (51.1%) 77 (20.9%) 0.034
T1 exit to LD exclude school 2095 1764 331 750 (35.8%) 955 (45.6%) 390 (18.6%) < 0.001
T2 exit to LD exclude school 1455 1212 243 428 (29.4%) 732 (50.3%) 295 (20.3%) < 0.001
T3 exit to LD exclude school 323 236 87 85 (26.3%) 173 (53.6%) 65 (20.1%) 0.062
Comparison in mean difference Median (IQR)   Mean  
Restriction Contacts Before After   Before After Difference (95% CI) P value
Local Exclude work and school 2 (1 to 4) 2 (1 to 3)   3.18 2.49 − 0.69 (− 1.25 to − 0.17) 0.004
ROS Exclude work and school 2 (1 to 3) 2 (1 to 3)   2.9 2.66 − 0.25 (− 0.5 to − 0.01) 0.045
10 pm Other 0 (0 to 1) 0 (0 to 1)   1.37 1.38 0.01 (− 0.23 to 0.23) 0.915
WFH Work 0 (0 to 1) 0 (0 to 0)   4.62 3.62 − 0.99 (− 1.94 to − 0.03) 0.042
T1 entry Exclude work and school 2 (1 to 3) 2 (1 to 3)   2.79 2.66 − 0.13 (− 0.39 to 0.11) 0.305
T2 entry Exclude work and school 2 (1 to 3) 2 (1 to 3)   2.42 2.56 0.14 (− 0.17 to 0.55) 0.473
T3 entry Exclude work and school 2 (1 to 3) 2 (1 to 3)   3.09 2.32 − 0.77 (− 1.97 to − 0.03) 0.067
T1 exit to LD Exclude school 2 (1 to 4) 2 (1 to 3)   4.21 2.81 − 1.40 (− 2.03 to − 0.85) < 0.001
T2 exit to LD Exclude school 2 (1 to 3) 1 (1 to 3)   3.4 2.97 − 0.42 (− 1.13 to 0.33) 0.247
T3 exit to LD Exclude school 2 (1 to 3) 2 (1 to 3)   3.08 3.54 0.46 (− 0.28 to 1.41) 0.343
  1. Two-sided p value calculated by counting the number of permutations where the magnitude of the test statistics is greater than the observed test statistics, and dividing by the number of permutations
  2. ROS Rule of Six, WFH encouraged to work from home, LD lockdown, T1 Tier 1, T2 Tier 2, T3 Tier 3, IQR inter-quartile range