Table 1 Model parameters
From: Optimizing antiviral treatment for seasonal influenza in the USA: a mathematical modeling analysis
Parameter | Values in the baseline scenario | Ranges tested in the sensitivity analysis1 | Justifications |
|---|---|---|---|
Percentage of individuals at high risk | |||
 Age group, years: | |||
  0–4 | 5.0% |  | [1] |
  5–19 | 10.6% |  | |
  20–49 | 14.9% |  | |
  50–64 | 33.0% |  | |
  ≥ 65 | 51.2% |  | |
Percentage of individuals at high risk who receive treatment within 48 h after symptom onset | |||
 Age group, years: | |||
  0–4 | 4.3% | 4.3–100.0% | |
  5–19 | 2.7% | 2.7–100.0% | |
  20–49 | 4.8% | 4.8–100.0% | |
  50–64 | 3.7% | 3.7–100.0% | |
  ≥ 65 | 3.1% | 3.1–100.0% | |
Percentage of individuals at high risk who receive treatment more than 48 h after symptom onset |  |  | [24] |
 Age group, years: | |||
  0–4 | 11.6% |  |  |
  5–19 | 7.3% |  | |
  20–49 | 12.8% |  | |
  50–64 | 9.9% |  | |
  ≥ 65 | 8.4% |  | |
Percentage reduction in transmissibility from individuals who are treated within 0–48 h2 | 23.2% | 10.4–34.3% | |
Percentage reduction in transmissibility from individuals who are treated within 48–72 h2 | 21.1% | 9.3–32.2% | |
Effectiveness of administering antiviral treatment within0–72 h in reducing hospitalizations2 | |||
 ≤ 19 years | 75.0% | Uniform (11,81) | |
 > 19 years | 59.0% | Uniform (11,89) | |
Case: hospitalization ratio | |||
 Age group, years: | |||
  0–4 | 143.4:1 |  | [81] |
  5–19 | 364.7:1 |  | |
  20–49 | 178.2:1 |  | |
  50–64 | 94.3:1 |  | |
  ≥ 65 | 11.0:1 |  | |
High-risk: low-risk hospitalization ratio | |||
 Age group, years: | |||
  0–4 | 10.7:1 |  | |
  5–19 | 8.0:1 |  | |
  20–49 | 8.0:1 |  | |
  50–64 | 6.8:1 |  | |
  ≥ 65 | 3.0:1 |  | |
Susceptibility rate | |||
 Age group, years: | |||
  0–4 | 0.0026–0.0036 |  | Additional file 1: Calibrated parameters |
  5–49 | 0.0014–0.0016 |  | |
  50–64 | 0.0028–0.0032 |  | |
  ≥ 65 | 0.0020–0.0022 |  | |