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Table 3 Sensitivity analysis of the effectiveness of early antiviral treatment with regard to averting hospitalizations

From: Optimizing antiviral treatment for seasonal influenza in the USA: a mathematical modeling analysis

Outcome

Texas

California

Connecticut

Virginia

Model projection (#)

Proportion2 (%)

Model projection (#)

Proportion2 (%)

Model projection (#)

Proportion2 (%)

Model projection (#)

Proportion2 (%)

Hospitalizations averted annually compared to baseline scenario: 1

 Treating early3 while keeping baseline treatment coverage

205–718

(2.4–8.6)

311–1067

(2.4–8.9)

25–82

(3.0–10.6)

61–199

(2.9–10.1)

 Treating 20% of infected individuals early3

397–1414

(4.5–16.8)

596–2083

(4.6–17.1)

49–157

(5.8–20.3)

116–383

(5.5–19.4)

  1. Sensitivity analysis conducted by testing different values for (1) effectiveness of early antiviral treatment with regard to risk for hospitalizations ranges 11–89% for adults, 11–81% for children, and (2) reduction in transmissibility from individuals who have treated ranges 10.4–34.3% regardless the age group
  2. 1 95% Credible Interval of total hospitalizations averted over 50,000 simulations
  3. 2 Percentage reduction in total hospitalizations compared to baseline scenario
  4. 3 Treating early refers to administering antiviral treatment within 48 h of symptoms onset
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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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