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Table 1 Number of COVID-19 community cases not detected per week under varied prevalence of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 acute respiratory illness/fever and cough symptom weekly point prevalence, per million population

From: Exit strategies: optimising feasible surveillance for detection, elimination, and ongoing prevention of COVID-19 community transmission

Weekly point prevalence of non-COVID-19 ARI /fever and cough

Total non- COVID-19 ARI/ fever and cough presentations per week

Number of patients tested per week

0.01% COVID-19 prevalence (100 cases in total)

0.1% COVID-19 prevalence (1000 cases in total)

0.5% COVID-19 prevalence (5000 cases in total)

   

% all (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) ARI/fever and cough tested

Number of COVID-19 ARI/fever and cough cases in population not tested

% all (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) ARI/fever and cough tested

Number of COVID-19 ARI/fever and cough cases in population not tested

% all (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) ARI/fever and cough tested

Number of COVID-19 ARI/fever and cough cases in population not tested

2%

20,000

15,000

75%

25

71%

286

60%

2000

4%

40,000

15,000

37%

63

37%

634

33%

3333

6%

60,000

15,000

25%

75

25%

754

23%

3846

2%

20,000

20,000

100%

0

95%

48

80%

1000

4%

40,000

20,000

50%

50

49%

512

44%

2778

6%

60,000

20,000

33%

67

33%

672

31%

3462

2%

20,000

25,000

124%

0

119%

0

100%

0

4%

40,000

25,000

62%

38

61%

390

56%

2222

6%

60,000

25,000

42%

58

41%

590

38%

3077

2%

20,000

30,000

149%

0

143%

0

120%

0

4%

40,000

30,000

75%

25

73%

268

67%

1667

6%

60,000

30,000

50%

50

49%

508

46%

2692

2%

20,000

40,000

199%

0

190%

0

160%

0

4%

40,000

40,000

100%

0

98%

24

89%

556

6%

60,000

40,000

67%

33

66%

344

62%

1923

2%

20,000

60,000

299%

0

286%

0

240%

0

4%

40,000

60,000

150%

0

146%

0

133%

0

6%

60,000

60,000

100%

0

98%

16

92%

385

2%

20,000

70,000

348%

0

333%

0

280%

0

4%

40,000

70,000

175%

0

171%

0

156%

0

6%

60,000

70,000

116%

0

115%

0

108%

0