Table 2 COVID-19 infections missed per 10,000 population tested, with and without pooling, under varied testing capacity, pooling and test sensitivity
Row | Prevalence of COVID-19 in those being tested | Number with disease per 10,000 | Sensitivity of pooled test | Exhaustive testing of 10,000 individuals using 1/4 pooling | Exhaustive testing of 10,000 individuals using 1/16 pooling | Percentage cases missed with no pooling (test sensitivity of 99.9%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 | Col 4 | Same number of tests used and individuals tested as in column 1 | Same number of tests used and individuals tested as in column 3 | ||||
Total tests needed | Percentage of cases missed | Total tests needed | Percentage of cases missed | ||||||
1 | 0.05% | 5 | 99.90% | 2530 | 0% | 715 | 1% | 75% | 93% |
2 | 0.05% | 5 | 95.00% | 2529 | 5% | 711 | 5% | 75% | 93% |
3 | 0.05% | 5 | 90.00% | 2528 | 10% | 707 | 10% | 75% | 93% |
4 | 0.05% | 5 | 80.00% | 2526 | 20% | 699 | 20% | 75% | 93% |
5 | 0.05% | 5 | 70.00% | 2524 | 30% | 691 | 30% | 75% | 93% |
6 | 0.10% | 10 | 99.90% | 2550 | 0% | 793 | 1% | 75% | 92% |
7 | 0.10% | 10 | 95.00% | 2548 | 5% | 786 | 6% | 75% | 92% |
8 | 0.10% | 10 | 90.00% | 2546 | 10% | 778 | 11% | 75% | 92% |
9 | 0.10% | 10 | 80.00% | 2542 | 20% | 762 | 21% | 75% | 92% |
10 | 0.10% | 10 | 70.00% | 2538 | 30% | 746 | 31% | 75% | 93% |
11 | 1.00% | 100 | 99.90% | 2903 | 2% | 2117 | 7% | 71% | 79% |
12 | 1.00% | 100 | 95.00% | 2884 | 7% | 2045 | 12% | 71% | 80% |
13 | 1.00% | 100 | 90.00% | 2864 | 11% | 1970 | 17% | 71% | 80% |
14 | 1.00% | 100 | 80.00% | 2825 | 21% | 1822 | 26% | 72% | 82% |
15 | 1.00% | 100 | 70.00% | 2785 | 31% | 1673 | 35% | 72% | 83% |
16 | 3.00% | 300 | 99.90% | 3655 | 5% | 4485 | 20% | 63% | 55% |
17 | 3.00% | 300 | 95.00% | 3599 | 9% | 4296 | 24% | 64% | 57% |
18 | 3.00% | 300 | 90.00% | 3541 | 14% | 4103 | 28% | 65% | 59% |
19 | 3.00% | 300 | 80.00% | 3427 | 24% | 3717 | 36% | 66% | 63% |
20 | 3.00% | 300 | 70.00% | 3312 | 33% | 3331 | 44% | 67% | 67% |