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Fig. 2 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 2

From: Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Fig. 2

Estimated attack rates of infection (a), symptomatic cases (b), and critical disease (c), overall and by age group in different geographical contexts of the SWSZ, as expected at the end of an epidemic mitigated by school closure alone. Outputs were obtained by simulating 1000 different epidemics where the per-contact transmission rate is set to reproduce, when neglecting contacts occurring at school, random samples of the distribution of the net reproduction number estimated from national surveillance data: 1.62 (95% CI 1.55–1.70) [5]. Black lines represent 95% credible intervals

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BMC Medicine

ISSN: 1741-7015

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