Table 2 Model estimated TB epidemiologic outcomes for the total population, migrants, and residents under base-case scenarios in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2035
Population and year | Model outcomes, per 100 K | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TB transmission events | New infection | New TB cases | Deaths due to TB | Life-years lost due to TB | ||||||
Point estimate | 95% CI | Point estimate | 95% CI | Point estimate | 95% CI | Point estimate | 95% CI | Point estimate | 95% CI | |
Residents | ||||||||||
 2015 | 74 | 65, 85 | 96 | 83, 108 | 22.4 | 20.2, 25.1 | 1.64 | 1.36, 1.93 | 29.1 | 24.6, 35.0 |
 2020 | 53 | 46, 61 | 71 | 61, 83 | 18.4 | 16.4, 21.0 | 1.33 | 1.09, 1.59 | 21.9 | 18.7, 26.4 |
 2025 | 43 | 36, 50 | 62 | 52, 73 | 15.5 | 13.7, 17.8 | 1.15 | 0.94, 1.38 | 18.0 | 15.3, 21.6 |
 2035 | 32 | 26, 38 | 51 | 40, 61 | 11.3 | 9.8, 13.2 | 0.85 | 0.69, 1.04 | 12.9 | 11.2, 15.4 |
Migrants | ||||||||||
 2015 | 364 | 308, 430 | 255 | 216, 294 | 37.0 | 33.9, 40.6 | 1.37 | 1.14, 1.64 | 50.8 | 42.3, 59.0 |
 2020 | 258 | 215, 314 | 191 | 164, 228 | 29.3 | 26.5, 32.8 | 1.06 | 0.89, 1.30 | 37.4 | 31.0, 44.9 |
 2025 | 217 | 179, 269 | 169 | 140, 211 | 25.2 | 22.3, 28.4 | 0.91 | 0.77, 1.11 | 31.3 | 26.1, 37.6 |
 2035 | 170 | 138, 218 | 140 | 112, 175 | 19.6 | 17.1, 22.9 | 0.7 | 0.58, 0.85 | 24.2 | 20.1, 29.5 |
Total | ||||||||||
 2015 | 253 | 216, 294 | 194 | 165, 221 | 31.4 | 28.9, 34.1 | 1.47 | 1.27, 1.75 | 42.5 | 35.5, 49.3 |
 2020 | 172 | 142, 214 | 141 | 120, 170 | 24.8 | 22.3, 28.1 | 1.17 | 1.01, 1.42 | 30.9 | 26.2, 36.3 |
 2025 | 140 | 106, 185 | 121 | 94, 156 | 20.9 | 18.1, 23.8 | 1.01 | 0.86, 1.23 | 25.4 | 21.7, 30.8 |
 2035 | 104 | 73, 141 | 98 | 71, 130 | 15.6 | 13.1, 18.6 | 0.77 | 0.66, 0.94 | 18.8 | 15.5, 23.6 |