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Table 2 Model estimated TB epidemiologic outcomes for the total population, migrants, and residents under base-case scenarios in 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2035

From: The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study

Population and year Model outcomes, per 100 K
TB transmission events New infection New TB cases Deaths due to TB Life-years lost due to TB
Point estimate 95% CI Point estimate 95% CI Point estimate 95% CI Point estimate 95% CI Point estimate 95% CI
Residents
 2015 74 65, 85 96 83, 108 22.4 20.2, 25.1 1.64 1.36, 1.93 29.1 24.6, 35.0
 2020 53 46, 61 71 61, 83 18.4 16.4, 21.0 1.33 1.09, 1.59 21.9 18.7, 26.4
 2025 43 36, 50 62 52, 73 15.5 13.7, 17.8 1.15 0.94, 1.38 18.0 15.3, 21.6
 2035 32 26, 38 51 40, 61 11.3 9.8, 13.2 0.85 0.69, 1.04 12.9 11.2, 15.4
Migrants
 2015 364 308, 430 255 216, 294 37.0 33.9, 40.6 1.37 1.14, 1.64 50.8 42.3, 59.0
 2020 258 215, 314 191 164, 228 29.3 26.5, 32.8 1.06 0.89, 1.30 37.4 31.0, 44.9
 2025 217 179, 269 169 140, 211 25.2 22.3, 28.4 0.91 0.77, 1.11 31.3 26.1, 37.6
 2035 170 138, 218 140 112, 175 19.6 17.1, 22.9 0.7 0.58, 0.85 24.2 20.1, 29.5
Total
 2015 253 216, 294 194 165, 221 31.4 28.9, 34.1 1.47 1.27, 1.75 42.5 35.5, 49.3
 2020 172 142, 214 141 120, 170 24.8 22.3, 28.1 1.17 1.01, 1.42 30.9 26.2, 36.3
 2025 140 106, 185 121 94, 156 20.9 18.1, 23.8 1.01 0.86, 1.23 25.4 21.7, 30.8
 2035 104 73, 141 98 71, 130 15.6 13.1, 18.6 0.77 0.66, 0.94 18.8 15.5, 23.6