Fig. 1

Models of relative infectiousness and the probability of testing positive relative to time since SARS-CoV-2 infection. a Infectiousness density functions for a Gamma density function approximating a 10-day infectious period with a peak on day 5 [54,55,56,57,58], a host infection model adopted from Goyal et al. [59], and simulated infectious and latent periods adopted from Clifford et al. [51]. b Models of the probability of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 relative to time since infection: a distribution estimating positivity by RT-PCR adopted from Clifford et al. [51] and antigen (“Ag”) testing curves for each infectiousness curve (a) scaled such that test positivity tracks infectiousness with a maximum sensitivity of 80% at peak infectiousness