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Table 1 Poisson models of emergency COPD admissions in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015-2019).

From: Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

 

Scotland

Wales

Pooled estimates

IRR (95% CI)

p value

IRR (95% CI)

p value

IRR (95% CI)

p value

Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average

0.83 (0.75, 0.91)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.51, 0.67)

< 0.001

0.74 (0.68, 0.80)

< 0.001

Slope in weeks 1–12

 5-year average

0.97 (0.97, 0.98)

< 0.001

0.97 (0.96, 0.98)

< 0.001

0.97 (0.97, 0.98)

< 0.001

 2020

0.97 (0.96, 0.98)

< 0.001

0.94 (0.92, 0.95)

< 0.001

0.96 (0.95, 0.97)

< 0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

1.00 (0.98, 1.01)

0.686

0.96 (0.95, 0.98)

< 0.001

0.99 (0.98, 1.00)

0.006

Change in level at week 13

 5-year average

1.08 (1.00, 1.18)

0.056

1.02 (0.92, 1.15)

0.666

1.06 (0.99, 1.13)

0.072

 2020

0.52 (0.47, 0.58)

< 0.001

0.62 (0.53, 0.72)

< 0.001

0.55 (0.50, 0.60)

< 0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

0.48 (0.42, 0.55)

< 0.001

0.60 (0.50, 0.73)

< 0.001

0.52 (0.46, 0.58)

< 0.001

Change in slope after week 13

 5-year average

1.01 (1.00, 1.02)

0.023

1.01 (1.00, 1.03)

0.034

1.01 (1.00, 1.02)

0.002

 2020

1.05 (1.04, 1.07)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.05, 1.09)

< 0.001

1.06 (1.05, 1.07)

< 0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

1.04 (1.03, 1.06)

< 0.001

1.06 (1.03, 1.08)

< 0.001

1.05 (1.03, 1.06)

< 0.001