| Scotland | Wales | Pooled estimates | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRR (95% CI) | p value | IRR (95% CI) | p value | IRR (95% CI) | p value | |
Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average | 0.87 (0.70, 1.08) | 0.206 | 0.85 (0.66, 1.11) | 0.234 | 0.86 (0.73, 1.02) | 0.083 |
Slope in weeks 1–12 | ||||||
 5-year average | 0.96 (0.94, 0.98) | < 0.001 | 0.98 (0.96, 1.00) | 0.063 | 0.97 (0.95, 0.98) | < 0.001 |
 2020 | 0.98 (0.96, 1.00) | 0.042 | 0.97 (0.94, 0.99) | 0.004 | 0.97 (0.96, 0.99) | 0.001 |
 2020 relative to 5-year average | 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) | 0.240 | 0.99 (0.95, 1.02) | 0.446 | 1.00 (0.98, 1.03) | 0.673 |
Change in level at week 13 | ||||||
 5-year average | 1.02 (0.84, 1.22) | 0.869 | 0.95 (0.75, 1.20) | 0.657 | 0.99 (0.86, 1.14) | 0.883 |
 2020 | 1.09 (0.89, 1.33) | 0.417 | 1.03 (0.81, 1.32) | 0.803 | 1.06 (0.91, 1.24) | 0.432 |
 2020 relative to 5-year average | 1.07 (0.81, 1.41) | 0.627 | 1.09 (0.78, 1.53) | 0.627 | 1.08 (0.87, 1.33) | 0.494 |
Change in slope after week 13 | ||||||
 5-year average | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) | 0.084 | 0.99 (0.97, 1.02) | 0.687 | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) | 0.266 |
 2020 | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) | 0.411 | 0.99 (0.96, 1.02) | 0.699 | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) | 0.379 |
 2020 relative to 5-year average | 0.97 (0.94, 1.00) | 0.078 | 1.00 (0.96, 1.04) | 0.997 | 0.98 (0.96, 1.01) | 0.169 |