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Table 2 Poisson models of deaths with COPD as the underlying cause in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015–2019).

From: Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

 

Scotland

Wales

Pooled estimates

IRR (95% CI)

p value

IRR (95% CI)

p value

IRR (95% CI)

p value

Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average

0.87 (0.70, 1.08)

0.206

0.85 (0.66, 1.11)

0.234

0.86 (0.73, 1.02)

0.083

Slope in weeks 1–12

 5-year average

0.96 (0.94, 0.98)

< 0.001

0.98 (0.96, 1.00)

0.063

0.97 (0.95, 0.98)

< 0.001

 2020

0.98 (0.96, 1.00)

0.042

0.97 (0.94, 0.99)

0.004

0.97 (0.96, 0.99)

0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

1.02 (0.99, 1.05)

0.240

0.99 (0.95, 1.02)

0.446

1.00 (0.98, 1.03)

0.673

Change in level at week 13

 5-year average

1.02 (0.84, 1.22)

0.869

0.95 (0.75, 1.20)

0.657

0.99 (0.86, 1.14)

0.883

 2020

1.09 (0.89, 1.33)

0.417

1.03 (0.81, 1.32)

0.803

1.06 (0.91, 1.24)

0.432

 2020 relative to 5-year average

1.07 (0.81, 1.41)

0.627

1.09 (0.78, 1.53)

0.627

1.08 (0.87, 1.33)

0.494

Change in slope after week 13

 5-year average

1.02 (1.00, 1.04)

0.084

0.99 (0.97, 1.02)

0.687

1.01 (0.99, 1.03)

0.266

 2020

0.99 (0.97, 1.01)

0.411

0.99 (0.96, 1.02)

0.699

0.99 (0.97, 1.01)

0.379

 2020 relative to 5-year average

0.97 (0.94, 1.00)

0.078

1.00 (0.96, 1.04)

0.997

0.98 (0.96, 1.01)

0.169