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Table 3 Poisson models of primary care consultations for acute exacerbations of COPD in Wales in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015–2019)

From: Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

 

IRR (95% CI)

p value

Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average

0.76 (0.68, 0.86)

< 0.001

Slope in weeks 1–12

 5-year average

0.97 (0.96, 0.98)

< 0.001

 2020

0.93 (0.92, 0.94)

< 0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

0.96 (0.95, 0.97)

< 0.001

Change in level at week 13

 5-year average

1.05 (0.95, 1.16)

0.322

 2020

0.64 (0.56, 0.72)

< 0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

0.61 (0.52, 0.71)

< 0.001

Change in slope after week 13

 5-year average

1.01 (1.00, 1.02)

0.043

 2020

1.03 (1.01, 1.04)

< 0.001

 2020 relative to 5-year average

1.01 (1.00, 1.03)

0.147