Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the incidence and mortality of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

Table 4 Poisson models of COPD-related emergency department attendances in Wales in 2020 and the corresponding 5-year averages (2015–2019)

	IRR (95% CI)	p value
Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared to 5-year average	0.65 (0.48, 0.88)	0.006
Slope in weeks 1–12
5-year average	0.97 (0.94, 0.99)	0.006
2020	0.97 (0.94, 1.01)	0.101
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.01 (0.97, 1.05)	0.686
Change in level at week 13
5-year average	1.08 (0.85, 1.38)	0.508
2020	0.59 (0.42, 0.82)	0.002
2020 relative to 5-year average	0.54 (0.36, 0.81)	0.003
Change in slope after week 13
5-year average	1.02 (0.99, 1.05)	0.227
2020	1.05 (1.01, 1.09)	0.019
2020 relative to 5-year average	1.03 (0.98, 1.08)	0.256

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