Fig. 4
Metapopulation model simulation results. a Comparison of model simulations in the baseline scenario (red lines and their shaded 95% uncertainties ranges) and unmitigated scenario (yellow lines and their shaded 95% uncertainties ranges) and daily confirmed (solid black lines) and suspected (dashed black lines) deaths from COVID-19. b Model simulations in five different scenarios: (1) baseline scenario as shown in a, (2) Ramadan counter-factual 1 where it is assumed that there is no movement restrictions during the Ramadan period and Rt values are similar to the baseline scenario, (3) Ramadan counter-factual 2 where it is assumed that there is no movement restrictions during the Ramadan period and Rt values are 75% of each district’s R0 value, (4) Ramadan counter-factual 3 where it is assumed that there are no movement restrictions during the Ramadan period and Rt values are each district’s R0 value, and (5) unmitigated scenario where no interventions since the beginning of the epidemic are assumed. c Median hospital beds availability per severe COVID-19 case over time based on different simulation scenarios. d Proportion of people infected based on the actual scenario up to 31 May 2020 (before AKB/the ‘new normal’) at the district level. e Proportions of people infected based on the unmitigated scenario up to 31 May 2020 (before AKB) at the district level. Light green shaded areas denote periods of PSBB whilst the dark green shaded areas represent the period of Ramadan domestic travel restrictions