Table 1 Metapopulation model simulation scenarios (one baseline scenario and four counterfactual scenarios)

Baseline

Movement from a district is assumed to reduce according to reductions in movement within a district scaled by an odds ratio of 2 to reflect assumed lower likelihood of travel outside a district relative to travel within a district.

Ramadan 1

No movement reductions between districts during the Ramadan and Eid festivals period and the R_t values during the period were assumed to be similar to the baseline scenario.

Ramadan 2

No movement reductions between districts during the Ramadan and Eid festivals period and the R_t values during the period were assumed to be 75% of each district R_0,i.

Ramadan 3

No movement reductions between districts during the Ramadan and Eid festivals period and the R_t values during the period were assumed to be the same as each district R_0,i.

Unmitigated

No interventions assumed which implies no movement reductions over all period of simulations with the R_t values to be the same as each district R_0,i over the period of simulations.