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Table 2 Total number of estimated deaths based on model simulations of the baseline and unmitigated scenario

From: Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

Province Confirmed deaths May 13–31 (WHO Indonesia situation report 10 [4]) Suspected deaths May 13–31 (WHO Indonesia situation report 10 [4]) Baseline model scenario deaths May 13–31 Confirmed deaths up to May 31 [14, 31] Suspected deaths up to May 31 (provincial data collated by KawalCOVID19 [32]) Baseline model scenario deaths up to May 31 Unmitigated counterfactual deaths up to May 31 Averted deaths up to May 31 (unmitigated–baseline)
Jakarta 74 447 158 (47–333) 520 2435 810 (292–1777) 16,356 (7896–21,593) 15,560 (7567–19,691)
West Java 46 351 197 (55–525) 135 653 525 (149–1368) 19,733 (5682–39,876) 19,151 (5516–38,400)
Central Java 4 269 88 (36–216) 66 666 203 (67–511) 6321 (2147–16,052) 6068 (2056–15,485)
Yogyakarta 0 1 2 (0–8) 9 29 6 (1–33) 401 (138–1097) 397 (132–1088)
East Java 241 458 437 (98–944) 395 1127 1091 (226–2646) 12,182 (3625–20,800) 10,997 (3277–18,102)
Banten 13 47 82 (20–224) 67 332 229 (66–711) 7302 (2180–14,732) 7079 (2111–14,141)
Java island total 378 1638 983 (360–1930) 1192 5242 2912 (1109–5851) 59,896 (26,787–112,795) 57,030 (24,843–105,378)
  1. Values inside the brackets denote 95 percentile range of simulations. Suspected deaths are a combination of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths