Table 2 Total number of estimated deaths based on model simulations of the baseline and unmitigated scenario
Province | Confirmed deaths May 13–31 (WHO Indonesia situation report 10 [4]) | Suspected deaths May 13–31 (WHO Indonesia situation report 10 [4]) | Baseline model scenario deaths May 13–31 | Suspected deaths up to May 31 (provincial data collated by KawalCOVID19 [32]) | Baseline model scenario deaths up to May 31 | Unmitigated counterfactual deaths up to May 31 | Averted deaths up to May 31 (unmitigated–baseline) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jakarta | 74 | 447 | 158 (47–333) | 520 | 2435 | 810 (292–1777) | 16,356 (7896–21,593) | 15,560 (7567–19,691) |
West Java | 46 | 351 | 197 (55–525) | 135 | 653 | 525 (149–1368) | 19,733 (5682–39,876) | 19,151 (5516–38,400) |
Central Java | 4 | 269 | 88 (36–216) | 66 | 666 | 203 (67–511) | 6321 (2147–16,052) | 6068 (2056–15,485) |
Yogyakarta | 0 | 1 | 2 (0–8) | 9 | 29 | 6 (1–33) | 401 (138–1097) | 397 (132–1088) |
East Java | 241 | 458 | 437 (98–944) | 395 | 1127 | 1091 (226–2646) | 12,182 (3625–20,800) | 10,997 (3277–18,102) |
Banten | 13 | 47 | 82 (20–224) | 67 | 332 | 229 (66–711) | 7302 (2180–14,732) | 7079 (2111–14,141) |
Java island total | 378 | 1638 | 983 (360–1930) | 1192 | 5242 | 2912 (1109–5851) | 59,896 (26,787–112,795) | 57,030 (24,843–105,378) |