Fig. 5

Comparison of ten vaccination strategies in Rhode Island based on cumulative cases (second row), hospitalizations (third row), and deaths (fourth row), given two levels of vaccine supply and under the three most pessimistic assumptions for vaccine profile (top row). The left three columns show outcomes when the vaccine supply is low (50,000 vaccines), and the right three columns show outcomes for high vaccine supply (300,000 vaccines). Our reference strategy is “random” (solid gray line) where everybody has an equal chance of getting vaccinated. The solid pink, cyan, and green lines are strategies which cover the 16–29, 30–59, and 60+ age groups, respectively. The dashed-dotted lines are strategies targeting 20–39 and 60+ age groups with different distribution of vaccine supply to the two age groups (e.g., blue is 25% of the allocation for 20–39 and 75% of the allocation for 60+). The dashed lines are strategies which include 20–49 and 70+ age groups, which are the key age groups identified in Fig. 4. Results for medium transmission scenario in Massachusetts shown in Additional file 1: Figure S20