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Fig. 2 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 2

From: Achieving a “step change” in the tuberculosis epidemic through comprehensive community-wide intervention: a model-based analysis

Fig. 2

Simulations of the calibrated model. We calibrated the model to represent a mid-sized city in a high-burden country with TB epidemiology resembling that of India, with a population of 2 million in 2020; 24% were assumed to live in a high-prevalence area within the city, consistent with estimates of the slum-dwelling population [20]. Plotted curves represent simulations within the calibrated model. A The median prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) per 100,000 in 2020 was 260 (95% range 210–300) in the overall population, 420 (350–560) in the high-prevalence subpopulation, and 220 (160–250) in the low-risk subpopulation. B The median annual incidence of TB per 100,000 in 2020 was 250 (180–330) in the overall population and 310 (230–400) and 240 (160–310) in the higher- and lower-risk subpopulations, respectively. C The median annual TB-related mortality rate per 100,000 in 2020 was 33 (25–41) in the overall population and 60 (40–91) and 26 (19–34) in the high- and low-risk subpopulations, respectively. Additional model outputs and calibration targets are shown in Addtional file 1: Fig. S-1

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