Table 1 Model calibration targets and demographic assumptions
Target/assumption | Calibration range* or assumed value | Reference |
|---|---|---|
Proportion of prevalent TB occurring among children under 15 years, in 2020 | 0.0975–0.1625 | 2018 WHO estimate for India of 0.13 [1] |
Prevalence of TB in the low-risk subpopulation in 2020 | 150–250 per 100,000 | Assumption of 200 per 100,000 in non-slum dwellers [15] |
Prevalence of TB in the high-risk subpopulation in 2020 | 345–575 per 100,000 | Assumption of 460 per 100,000 among slum-dwellers [26] |
Annual rate of TB infection (ARTI) in the high-risk subpopulation in 2020 | 1.5–2.5% | Assumption of 2% mean rate [27] |
Annual TB-related mortality rate in 2020 | 24.75–41.25 per 100,000 | 2018 WHO estimate for India of 33 per 100,00 [1] |
Annual percentage decline in TB incidence, between 2000 and 2020 | 1.5–2.5% | WHO estimate for India between 2000 and 2018 of 2% [1] |
Proportion of prevalent TB that is asymptomatic in 2020 | 0.45–0.75 | Assumption of 0.6 mean proportion [28] |
Proportion of urban population in the high-risk subpopulation | 0.24 | United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals database estimate of slum-dwelling population [29] |
Proportion of the population under 15 years | 0.27 | Populationpyramid.net [30] |
Annual birth rate | 0.0197 | Populationpyramid.net [30] |