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Table 1 Parameter ranges used in model. 3HP, weekly isoniazid and rifapentine for 12 weeks. IPT, isoniazid preventive therapy; ART, antiretroviral therapy status

From: The impact of blood transcriptomic biomarker targeted tuberculosis preventive therapy in people living with HIV: a mathematical modelling study

Parameter

Median (95% range)

Source

Sensitivity of IGRA for infection, se

61 (47–75)

[18]

Specificity of IGRA for infection, sp

96 (94–98)

[19]

RR of infection if previously infected, p

0.21 (0.14–0.30)

[17]

Duration of preventive therapy, Dp

3 months

Based on duration of 3HP

Number of recent infection states, N

20

Gives total duration or recent infection of 5 years

Duration of recent infection states, D

3 months

Progression from remote infection, k

1.5e−4

See Additional file 1

Sensitivity for incident TB (over 15 months from testing)

RISK11 (whole cohort)

88.6 (43.5–98.7)

[14, 15] No incident TB cases amongst RISK11-negative participants not receiving IPT

RISK11 (on ART and not receiving IPT)

100

RISK11 (ART naïve and not receiving IPT)

100

Optimum TPP

90

[9]

Minimum TPP

75

Specificity for incident TB (over 15 months from testing)

RISK11 (whole cohort)

68.9 (65.3–72.3)

[14]

RISK11 (on ART and not receiving IPT)

70.2 (64.0–75.7)

RISK11 (ART naïve and not receiving IPT)

45.9 (34.9–57.4)

Optimum TPP

90

[9]

Minimum TPP

75