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Table 1 Epidemiological estimates. World Health Organization (WHO) case detection ratio (CDR), our CDR, proportions of cases dying and self-curing before treatment, rates of decline by setting

From: Durations of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and care-seeking phases of tuberculosis disease with a Bayesian analysis of prevalence survey and notification data

  Cambodia Ethiopia Kenya Lao PDR Malawi Pakistan Philippines Uganda Tanzania Vietnam Zambia
Population aged 15 and above, 2019, million 11.4 66.9 32 4.9 10.5 140.6 75.2 23.7 32.6 74.1 9.9
Prevalence survey
Survey year 2011 2010–2011 2016 2010–2011 2013 2010–2011 2016 2014–2015 2012 2017–2018 2013–2014
Prevalence in the survey year, per 100,000a 839 (748–933) 236 (193–281) 478 (425–532) 604 (528–683) 418 (348–491) 325 (291–360) 998 (908–1090) 395 (335–456) 305 (258–355) 358 (311–406) 575 (508–644)
WHO data/estimates
Case notification, 2019, per 100,000 247 (244–250) 150 (149–150) 238 (236–240) 138 (135–142) 146 (144–148) 201 (200–202) 488 (486–489) 238 (236–240) 212 (210–213) 136 (135–137) 340 (336–343)
Case-detection ratio 57 (40.0–88) 69 (51.0–98) 63 (43.0–100) 57 (40.0–89) 56 (35.0–110) 64 (48.0–90) 63 (40.0–110) 65 (43.0–110) 53 (30.0–110) 57 (40.0–90) 58 (41.0–90)
Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000 387 (220–546) 208 (133–283) 385 (194–572) 206 (120–288) 218 (85–361) 351 (225–478) 705 (310–1102) 304 (135–473) 356 (98–617) 219 (127–312) 534 (302–766)
Model estimates: All TB regardless of symptomatic or not
Duration by P:N ratio, monthb 28.9 (25.8–32.3) 10.2 (8.4–12.3) 25.1 (22.5–28.0) 109.4 (95.1–125.6) 29.7 (25.1–34.9) 17.8 (15.9–19.9) 33.3 (30.5–36.4) 24.5 (21.0–28.5) 20.8 (17.7–24.2) 33.0 (28.6–37.3) 16.0 (14.2–18.0)
Time bacteriologically positive, month 22.0 (18.9–25.8) 9.0 (7.5–10.8) 18.3 (16.1–21.0) 36.1 (29.9–45.3) 21.8 (18.4–25.9) 13.1 (11.5–14.8) 22.3 (19.6–25.6) 19.1 (16.4–22.2) 16.2 (14.0–18.8) 20.7 (17.8–24.5) 13.4 (11.8–15.2)
Case-detection ratioc 67% (56–79%) 87% (80–94%) 69% (60–79%) 24% (19–31%) 63% (53–74%) 76% (68–84%) 53% (46–62%) 63% (53–72%) 68% (59–77%) 59% (50–70%) 79% (71–88%)
Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000 342 (285–403) 168 (156–183) 360 (312–414) 595 (449–743) 222 (187–265) 287 (259–319) 914 (782–1,055) 354 (305–412) 307 (271–352) 230 (194–272) 426 (382–474)
Model estimates: All symptomatic TB
Duration by P:N ratio, month 8.7 (7.1–10.5) 5.3 (4.0–6.7) 11.8 ( 9.9–13.8) 53.4 (43.6–64.1) 20.6 (16.7–24.9) 10.9 (9.4–12.4) 10.9 (9.2–12.7) 11.9 (9.4–14.6) 13.3 (10.7–16.0) 21.9 (18.6–25.6) 9.7 (8.2–11.3)
Time without care-seeking, month 1.2 (0.6–1.9) N.A. 5.6 (4.6–6.8) N.A. 6.6 (4.8–8.6) N.A. 4.2 (3.3–5.2) 4.2 (3.0–5.6) 6.3 (4.9–7.8) N.A. 4.1 (3.3–5.1)
Time bacteriologically positive, month 8.0 (6.7– 9.6) 4.8 (3.7–6.0) 9.5 (8.2–11.1) 21.6 (18.0–26.8) 15.8 (13.2–19.0) 8.2 (7.2–9.4) 9.2 (7.9–10.6) 10.4 (8.5–12.5) 10.9 (9.1–13.0) 14.2 (12.1–16.8) 8.5 (7.3– 9.8)
Case-detection ratio 83% (77–89%) 92% (87–96%) 80% (73–86%) 36% (29–44%) 69% (59–79%) 82% (76–88%) 75% (69–81%) 75% (67–82%) 75% (67–82%) 66% (57–75%) 85% (78–91%)
Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000 270 (252–292) 160 (154–169) 309 (286–338) 396 (315–482) 203 (177–235) 265 (247–285) 643 (593–700) 296 (269–329) 277 (252–309) 206 (181–235) 397 (369–429)
Other estimates/metrics
Annual decline rate, % per year 4.7% (4.4–5.0%) 7.3% (7.1–7.5%) 1.5% (1.3–1.6%) − 8.0% (− 8.5% to − 7.5%) 2.9% (2.6–3.2%) 1.6% (1.5–1.7%) − 8.3% (− 8.4% to − 8.2%) − 2.4% (− 2.7% to − 2.2%) − 1.3% (− 1.5% to − 1.1%) 1.0% (0.7–1.4%) 4.9% (4.7–5.1%)
Asymptomatic phase over total duration, % 64% (58–69%) 47% (39–56%) 48% (42–53%) 40% (35–45%) 27% (21–35%) 37% (32–42%) 59% (53–65%) 45% (38–53%) 32% (26–40%) 31% (26–37%) 37% (31–43%)
Symptomatic TB without care-seeking, % 15% (9–23%) N.A. 59% (51–67%) N.A. 42% (33–51%) N.A. 46% (38–54%) 41% (31–50%) 57% (48–67%) N.A. 48% (40–56%)
Self-cure before case-detection 32% (20–42%) 14% (8–21%) 27% (16–36%) 50% (35–61%) 30% (19–41%) 20% (12–28%) 32% (20–42%) 27% (17–37%) 23% (14–33%) 30% (19–41%) 20% (12–28%)
Deaths before case-detection 7% (6–9%) 3% (2–4%) 6% (5–7%) 19% (15–26%) 10% (8–12%) 6% (5–7%) 6% (5–7%) 8% (6–10%) 8% (6–9%) 12% (10–14%) 5% (4–6%)
  1. aValues are crude rates or proportions with 95% Binomial confidence intervals, while the model estimates are mean estimators with 95% credible intervals
  2. bP:N ratios use prevalence from the model estimates for 2019 and notified cases from WHO 2019 TB notification data
  3. cCase-detection ratio is defined as the ratio of notified cases and the estimated incident cases in percentage