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Table 1 Epidemiological estimates. World Health Organization (WHO) case detection ratio (CDR), our CDR, proportions of cases dying and self-curing before treatment, rates of decline by setting

From: Durations of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and care-seeking phases of tuberculosis disease with a Bayesian analysis of prevalence survey and notification data

 

Cambodia

Ethiopia

Kenya

Lao PDR

Malawi

Pakistan

Philippines

Uganda

Tanzania

Vietnam

Zambia

Population aged 15 and above, 2019, million

11.4

66.9

32

4.9

10.5

140.6

75.2

23.7

32.6

74.1

9.9

Prevalence survey

Survey year

2011

2010–2011

2016

2010–2011

2013

2010–2011

2016

2014–2015

2012

2017–2018

2013–2014

Prevalence in the survey year, per 100,000a

839 (748–933)

236 (193–281)

478 (425–532)

604 (528–683)

418 (348–491)

325 (291–360)

998 (908–1090)

395 (335–456)

305 (258–355)

358 (311–406)

575 (508–644)

WHO data/estimates

Case notification, 2019, per 100,000

247 (244–250)

150 (149–150)

238 (236–240)

138 (135–142)

146 (144–148)

201 (200–202)

488 (486–489)

238 (236–240)

212 (210–213)

136 (135–137)

340 (336–343)

Case-detection ratio

57 (40.0–88)

69 (51.0–98)

63 (43.0–100)

57 (40.0–89)

56 (35.0–110)

64 (48.0–90)

63 (40.0–110)

65 (43.0–110)

53 (30.0–110)

57 (40.0–90)

58 (41.0–90)

Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000

387 (220–546)

208 (133–283)

385 (194–572)

206 (120–288)

218 (85–361)

351 (225–478)

705 (310–1102)

304 (135–473)

356 (98–617)

219 (127–312)

534 (302–766)

Model estimates: All TB regardless of symptomatic or not

Duration by P:N ratio, monthb

28.9 (25.8–32.3)

10.2 (8.4–12.3)

25.1 (22.5–28.0)

109.4 (95.1–125.6)

29.7 (25.1–34.9)

17.8 (15.9–19.9)

33.3 (30.5–36.4)

24.5 (21.0–28.5)

20.8 (17.7–24.2)

33.0 (28.6–37.3)

16.0 (14.2–18.0)

Time bacteriologically positive, month

22.0 (18.9–25.8)

9.0 (7.5–10.8)

18.3 (16.1–21.0)

36.1 (29.9–45.3)

21.8 (18.4–25.9)

13.1 (11.5–14.8)

22.3 (19.6–25.6)

19.1 (16.4–22.2)

16.2 (14.0–18.8)

20.7 (17.8–24.5)

13.4 (11.8–15.2)

Case-detection ratioc

67% (56–79%)

87% (80–94%)

69% (60–79%)

24% (19–31%)

63% (53–74%)

76% (68–84%)

53% (46–62%)

63% (53–72%)

68% (59–77%)

59% (50–70%)

79% (71–88%)

Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000

342 (285–403)

168 (156–183)

360 (312–414)

595 (449–743)

222 (187–265)

287 (259–319)

914 (782–1,055)

354 (305–412)

307 (271–352)

230 (194–272)

426 (382–474)

Model estimates: All symptomatic TB

Duration by P:N ratio, month

8.7 (7.1–10.5)

5.3 (4.0–6.7)

11.8 ( 9.9–13.8)

53.4 (43.6–64.1)

20.6 (16.7–24.9)

10.9 (9.4–12.4)

10.9 (9.2–12.7)

11.9 (9.4–14.6)

13.3 (10.7–16.0)

21.9 (18.6–25.6)

9.7 (8.2–11.3)

Time without care-seeking, month

1.2 (0.6–1.9)

N.A.

5.6 (4.6–6.8)

N.A.

6.6 (4.8–8.6)

N.A.

4.2 (3.3–5.2)

4.2 (3.0–5.6)

6.3 (4.9–7.8)

N.A.

4.1 (3.3–5.1)

Time bacteriologically positive, month

8.0 (6.7– 9.6)

4.8 (3.7–6.0)

9.5 (8.2–11.1)

21.6 (18.0–26.8)

15.8 (13.2–19.0)

8.2 (7.2–9.4)

9.2 (7.9–10.6)

10.4 (8.5–12.5)

10.9 (9.1–13.0)

14.2 (12.1–16.8)

8.5 (7.3– 9.8)

Case-detection ratio

83% (77–89%)

92% (87–96%)

80% (73–86%)

36% (29–44%)

69% (59–79%)

82% (76–88%)

75% (69–81%)

75% (67–82%)

75% (67–82%)

66% (57–75%)

85% (78–91%)

Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000

270 (252–292)

160 (154–169)

309 (286–338)

396 (315–482)

203 (177–235)

265 (247–285)

643 (593–700)

296 (269–329)

277 (252–309)

206 (181–235)

397 (369–429)

Other estimates/metrics

Annual decline rate, % per year

4.7% (4.4–5.0%)

7.3% (7.1–7.5%)

1.5% (1.3–1.6%)

− 8.0% (− 8.5% to − 7.5%)

2.9% (2.6–3.2%)

1.6% (1.5–1.7%)

− 8.3% (− 8.4% to − 8.2%)

− 2.4% (− 2.7% to − 2.2%)

− 1.3% (− 1.5% to − 1.1%)

1.0% (0.7–1.4%)

4.9% (4.7–5.1%)

Asymptomatic phase over total duration, %

64% (58–69%)

47% (39–56%)

48% (42–53%)

40% (35–45%)

27% (21–35%)

37% (32–42%)

59% (53–65%)

45% (38–53%)

32% (26–40%)

31% (26–37%)

37% (31–43%)

Symptomatic TB without care-seeking, %

15% (9–23%)

N.A.

59% (51–67%)

N.A.

42% (33–51%)

N.A.

46% (38–54%)

41% (31–50%)

57% (48–67%)

N.A.

48% (40–56%)

Self-cure before case-detection

32% (20–42%)

14% (8–21%)

27% (16–36%)

50% (35–61%)

30% (19–41%)

20% (12–28%)

32% (20–42%)

27% (17–37%)

23% (14–33%)

30% (19–41%)

20% (12–28%)

Deaths before case-detection

7% (6–9%)

3% (2–4%)

6% (5–7%)

19% (15–26%)

10% (8–12%)

6% (5–7%)

6% (5–7%)

8% (6–10%)

8% (6–9%)

12% (10–14%)

5% (4–6%)

  1. aValues are crude rates or proportions with 95% Binomial confidence intervals, while the model estimates are mean estimators with 95% credible intervals
  2. bP:N ratios use prevalence from the model estimates for 2019 and notified cases from WHO 2019 TB notification data
  3. cCase-detection ratio is defined as the ratio of notified cases and the estimated incident cases in percentage