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Table 3 Epidemiological estimates by HIV status, Kenya and Blantyre. TB incidence, case detection ratio, and smear-stratified symptom duration by HIV status for Kenya and Blantyre, Malawi

From: Durations of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and care-seeking phases of tuberculosis disease with a Bayesian analysis of prevalence survey and notification data

  Kenya Blantyre
HIV status Non-HIV PLHIV Non-HIV PLHIV  
Background mortality μ μ + HIV-related mortality μ μ + HIV-related mortality
excess mortality for symptomatic TB Smear−: 50%/10 years
Smear+: 70%/10 years
5% per month Smear−: 50%/10 years
Smear+: 70%/10 years
5% per month
All TB regardless of symptomatic or not
 Time asymptomatic, month 10.35 (8.41–12.84) 3.81 (2.34–5.51) 3.22 (1.99–4.75) 8.79 (5.14–13.18) 1.32 (0.31–3.04) 1.15 (0.25–2.64)
 Time bacteriologically positive, month 20.90 (18.01–24.46) 7.79 (5.78– 9.99) 6.49 (4.94–8.11) 16.27 (11.59–21.53) 3.76 (1.81–6.07) 3.26 (1.76–5.03)
 Case-detection ratio 69% (59–81%) 84% (77–91%) 71% (63–80%) 76% (64–88%) 94% (88–98%) 84% (74–93%)
 Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000 263 (221–306) 2025 (1873–2205) 2403 (2142–2715) 158 (132–192) 1742 (1618–1879) 1949 (1745–2217)
All symptomatic TB
 Time bacteriologically positive, month 10.56 (8.86–12.48) 3.99 (2.52–5.56) 3.27 (2.16–4.40) 7.47 (4.53–11.05) 2.44 (1.00–4.25) 2.11 (0.95–3.49)
 Case-detection ratio 83% (75–91%) 90% (85–95%) 76% (67–84%) 88% (79–95%) 95% (90–98%) 85% (75–94%)
 Incidence rate in 2019, per 100,000 218 (198–240) 1882 (1791–2003) 2260 (2025–2542) 136 (121–155) 1712 (1604–1831) 1921 (1721–2177)
  1. μ: background mortality based on the World Population Prospects, 2016 for Kenya and 2019 for Blantyre (Malawi)
  2. HIV-related mortality: AIDS-related deaths/PLHIV for aged 15 and above from the UNAIDS data
  3. 5% per month (0.61 per year): an extreme case for gold miner in pre-ART era [26]