Developing an integrated microsimulation model for the impact of fiscal policies on child health in Europe: the example of childhood obesity in Italy

Table 4 Prevalence ratios and prediction intervals for children overweight and obesity at 48, 84 and 120 months

	Basic income		Poverty reduction		New-borns benefit		Child benefit
	BI1	BI2	PR1	PR2	NB1	NB2	CB1	CB2
48 months
Children overweight	0.994 [0.987–1.000]	0.946 [0.895–0.998]	0.996 [0.991–1.000]	0.967 [0.934–1.001]	0.999 [0.998–1.000]	0.993 [0.985–1.000]	0.993 [0.985–1.001]	0.952 [0.904–1.000]
Children obesity	0.986 [0.966–1.005]	0.907 [0.809–1.004]	0.988 [0.971–1.006]	0.936 [0.861–1.012]	0.998 [0.994–1.002]	0.987 [0.971–1.004]	0.982 [0.957–1.008]	0.912 [0.813–1.011]
84 months
Children overweight	0.991 [0.985–0.996]	0.913 [0.858–0.968]	0.994 [0.99–0.998]	0.946 [0.911–0.982]	0.999 [0.997–1.000]	0.988 [0.979–0.996]	0.989 [0.982–0.996]	0.921 [0.869–0.974]
Children obesity	0.968 [0.94–0.995]	0.807 [0.67–0.945]	0.972 [0.947–0.997]	0.854 [0.734–0.974]	0.996 [0.991–1.002]	0.973 [0.949–0.997]	0.957 [0.918–0.995]	0.805 [0.654–0.957]
120 months
Children overweight	0.988 [0.982–0.993]	0.876 [0.819–0.933]	0.992 [0.988–0.996]	0.925 [0.888–0.961]	0.998 [0.997–0.999]	0.982 [0.972–0.992]	0.986 [0.98–0.993]	0.887 [0.831–0.943]
Children obesity	0.946 [0.918–0.975]	0.666 [0.501–0.83]	0.951 [0.924–0.979]	0.721 [0.562–0.881]	0.993 [0.985–1.001]	0.950 [0.917–0.982]	0.920 [0.875–0.965]	0.639 [0.439–0.838]

Note: 95% confidence intervals in brackets. Ratios and prediction intervals according to the different fiscal reform scenarios in comparison with the baseline

ISSN: 1741-7015