Scenarios | MCV1 | MCV1 + MCV2 | MCV1 + MCV2 + SIAs | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cases, millions | Deaths, millions | DALYs, millions | Cases, millions | Deaths, millions | DALYs, millions | Cases, millions | Deaths, millions | DALYs, millions | |
Base | 1802 (ref) | 47.3 (ref) | 3155 (ref) | 2023 (ref) | 50.8 (ref) | 3396 (ref) | 2257 (ref) | 57.8 (ref) | 3819 (ref) |
(A) CFR, Portnoy’s method | – | 39.3 (− 17.0%) | 2589 (− 17.9%) | – | 40.9 (− 19.6%) | 2698 (− 20.6%) | – | 44.9 (− 22.3%) | 2944 (− 22.9%) |
(B) Contact pattern, synthetic matrices | 1824 (+ 1.2%) | 46.4 (− 1.8%) | 3099 (− 1.8%) | 2024 (+ 0.04%) | 49.4 (− 2.9%) | 3296 (− 2.9%) | 2265 (+ 0.36%) | 56.0 (− 3.2%) | 3697 (− 3.2%) |
(B’) Contact pattern, proportional mixing | 1815 (+0.69%) | 43.9 (− 7.3%) | 2913 (− 7.7%) | 1982 (− 2.0%) | 46.4 (− 8.8%) | 3076 (− 9.4%) | 2215 (− 1.8%) | 52.6 (− 8.9%) | 3454 (− 9.6%) |
(B”) Contact pattern, uniform mixing | 1813 (0.61%) | 36.5 (− 22.9%) | 2413 (− 23.5%) | 1964 (− 2.9%) | 38.3 (− 24.6%) | 2527 (− 25.6%) | 2225 (− 1.4%) | 43.5 (− 24.7%) | 2826 (− 26.0%) |
(C) Age-dependent vaccine efficacy, linear trend | 1615 (− 10.4%) | 42.8 (− 9.6%) | 2853 (− 9.6%) | 1939 (− 4.2%) | 48.4 (− 4.8%) | 3241 (− 4.6%) | 2213 (− 1.9%) | 56.6 (− 2.1%) | 3743 (− 2.0%) |
(D) SIA delivery to zero-dose population, dependency on previous vaccination | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2266 (+ 0.40%) | 57.94 (+ 0.26%) | 3829 (+ 0.26%) |
(D’) SIA delivery to zero-dose population, dependency on previous vaccination, excluding the largest survey | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2263 (+ 0.25%) | 57.89 (+ 0.18%) | 3826 (+ 0.18%) |
(D”) SIA delivery to zero-dose population, 7.7% never reached | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2118 (− 6.1%) | 53.8 (− 6.9%) | 3576 (− 6.4%) |
Full-update | 1646 (− 8.7%) | 35.9 (− 24.2%) | 2367 (− 25.0%) | 1949 (− 3.7%) | 38.1 (− 25.2%) | 2518 (− 25.9%) | 2244 (− 0.58%) | 42.6 (− 26.2%) | 2798 (− 26.7%) |