Fig. 2

Projected TB cases, in the absence of preventive therapy, among 1000 people newly diagnosed with HIV and 1000 TB household contacts. Simulated outcomes include the incidence of active TB (those cases arising from infections present before the start of the model) and the incidence of isoniazid- and/or rifampicin-resistant TB. Cases are classified based on whether they progressed from TB that was latent or subclinical at the time of TPT consideration (the start of the model) or were a recurrence of TB after non-curative treatment. Boxes show the median and interquartile range of projections when parameters are sampled probabilistically, and dots show outlier simulations that differ from the median by more than 1.5x the interquartile range in either direction