Fig. 3

TB incidence after of rifampicin (4R) or isoniazid (6H) preventive therapy, relative to no preventive therapy, in a cohort of 1000 newly diagnosed people with HIV. Outcomes include isoniazid (INH) monoresistant, rifampicin- or multidrug-resistant (RR/MDR), and total incident active TB cases, including relapses/failures after a single round of TB treatment if received. The darker shade of each color shows outcomes with no screening for subclinical TB, such that those with subclinical TB receive single-drug TPT. For comparison, the lighter shade of each color shows outcomes when subclinical TB must be ruled out before TPT; in this figure, it is assumed that this testing requirement reduces access to preventive therapy by 20%. Boxes show a median and interquartile range of projections when parameters are sampled probabilistically, and dots show outlier simulations that differ from the median by more than 1.5x the interquartile range in either direction. Analogous results for a cohort of household contacts are shown in Additional file 1: Figure S1, and for only under-age-5 contacts in Additional file 1: Figure S5