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Fig. 6 | BMC Medicine

Fig. 6

From: Modelling upper respiratory viral load dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

Fig. 6

Paired viral load and immune response dynamics. These panels show data from 12 patients, reported by Tan et al. [7]. a Viral load measurements (points) and modelled viral load trajectories from the mechanistic model (black lines show the posterior means, shaded areas are the 95% credible intervals). The coloured symbols indicate the severity score recorded for each subject (on the WHO severity scale). b Measured total T cell response (blue symbols), rescaled by the largest observed measurement. A logistic curve was fitted through the points for each patient, to facilitate the area under the curve (AUC, blue shaded area) calculation. To calculate both AUCs (antibody and T cell) we used only the first 15 days after symptom onset, as this was the time period used to fit our models. c Neutralising antibody response (purple dots). A logistic curve was fitted through the points for each patient, to facilitate the area under the curve (AUC, purple shaded area) calculation. d Relationship between the calculated AUCs of the T cell responses and modelled patient-specific immune responses (p value = 0.208). e Relationship between the calculated AUCs of the antibody responses and modelled patient-specific immune responses. Two patients failed to mount an antibody response which neutralised virus. The correlation between the patient-specific response and the AUC is much stronger when these patients are not included (p value = 0.006, compared to p value = 0.831 when all 12 subjects are considered). We note that for subjects 4 and 8 (open circles in d and e), fewer than 3 viral load measurements were available, meaning their fitted parameters may shrink to the study mean

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